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LELAND STANFORD JUNIOR UNIVERSITY PUBLICATIONS PSYCHICAL RESEARCH MONOGRAPH NO. 1
EXPERIMENTS
IN
PSYCHICAL RESEARCH
AT LELAND STANFORD JUNIOR UNIVERSITY
BY
JOHN EDGAR (^OOVER
Fellow in Psychical Research and Assistant Professor of Psychology
With a Foreword by DAVID STARR JORDAN, Chancellor Emeritus; an Introduction by Professor FRANK ANGELL, Head of Department of Psychology; and a Part by Professor LILLIEN J. MARTIN, Professor Emeritus of Psychology
From the Division of Psychical Research Department of Psychology
STANFORD UNIVERSITY, CALIFORNIA
PUBLISHED BY THE UNIVERSITY
1917
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STAMroEo Univsksitt Press
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DEDICATED
to
THOMAS WELTON STANFORD
Whose Wisdom in Providing Opportunities
for Scientific Investigation Has
Anticipated the Greatest Need
of Psychical Research
/
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V
765178
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FOREWORD
Science is human experience tested and set in order. It involves not alone the experience of the individual, but so far as may be, the accumu- lated or recorded experience of the race, of which the experience of the individual furnishes the basis of understanding. To enter the category of science, the data on which generalized results are based must be fully tested in order to eHminate personal equations whatever their form or origin.
In the investigation of the varied phenomena embraced under the term of "Psychical Research," as in any other department of knowledge, the Scientific Method is the sole instrument on which we can depend. To every apparent fact we must apply the tests of science : observation, ex- periment, logic, and instruments of precision. That the phenomena in this field are peculiarly baffling affords no ground for discouragement. By the methods of precision they are reducible to scientific order, and we may be sure that in this field as in any other we can safely follow wherever Truth shall lead. Genuine knowledge can never run counter to sound principles in human life.
But in this difficult borderland of psychology in which subjective and objective mental conditions are closely intertangled, the investigator finds it well to be cautious. Obvious explanations are seldom the true ones, and generalizations hastily drawn from them may check the growth of knowledge. In this field, perhaps above all others, the use of the "method of intuition" as an instrument of precision is sadly out of place. One supreme test of safety in generalization is the articulation of supposed facts with the knowledge already tested and organized by science.
The work in Psychical Research at Stanford University has rested from the first on "the solid ground of nature." At the present stage, its methods seem more important than its results, although the latter, while not sensational, are unquestionably substantial.
David Starr Jordan.
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To believe is dangerous, to be unbelieving is equally so; the Trutli, therefore, should be diligently sought after, lest that a foolish opinion should lead you to pronounce an unsound judgment. — PHiEDRUs: Fables, Book III, id: I and 5, 6.
Hardly as yet has the surface of the facts called "psychic" begun to be scratched for scientific purposes. It is through following these facts, I am persuaded, that the greatest scientific conquests of the coming genera- tion will be achieved. Kiihn ist das Miihen, herrlich der Lohn! — Wm. James: Final Impressions of a Psy- chical Researcher, 1909, in Memories and Studies, New York, 191 1, p. 206.
VI
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AUTHOR'S PREFACE
In a time when men's minds, scholars' minds, have been turned from philosophy to science, from principles implicit in human experience to principles empirical and eclectic, it is a strange anomaly that principles of life which are vital enough to determine men's conduct in their most serious concerns, and which are prevalent enough to be continuously op- erative in every civilized and uncivilized portion of the globe, are at once hailed by a small but important part of the learned world as the veritable principles of life, challenged by another equally important part of the learned world as groundless, and ignored by the great body of the re- sponsible men of science as unworthy of that rigorous inspection by which alone principles based upon the phenomena of the world may win the imprimatur of scientific confirmation or refutation.
The sheer universality of human interest in, and human allegiance to, one or another of the principles based upon psychical, or other "alleged ' phenomena, now classified in the field of Psychical Research, should con- fer upon these phenomena the right to continuous serious scientific inves- tigation regardless of the lack of promise which it seems to the general body of the men of science to offer. It is no adequate defense to claim that science has no time to go out of its way to combat the superstitions and prejudices of men; for no matter to what extent superstition and prejudice may be supported by these alleged phenomena, the phenomena are initially accepted because it is believed they have been repeatedly ob- served by trustworthy, even eminently qualified, observers.
Now that university education is shared by an increasingly large proportion of the people in civilized countries, and scientific knowledge is being widely disseminated, the obligation of science to the public, in respect to these matters, is heavy and is becoming increasingly greater. It is to be hoped that the situation will now improve, and that other cen- ters of learning will also assume this obligation and thereby make cooper- ative investigation possible.
The experiments described in this monograph fall into several classes of investigations which are fairly closely related to each other, and which are believed to be of fundamental importance to Psychical Research. They are offered as some slight contribution to science, of interest particularly to those who are more or less technically familiar with Psychical Research ; possibly their less technical portions may inter-
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VIU AUTHOR S PREFACE
est the layman. Lest the latter, however, be disappointed in finding no brief either for or against the general phenomena in this field, the assur- ance must hereby be offered him that the research is undertaken with a zeal for Truth, and is projected and controlled with an anxiety for the strength of the bridge it is building, which must bear the strain of the passage of men of learning, men of influence, men of science, from the shore of accepted knowledge to the island of the not-yet-recognized. Safety forbids bias or precipitancy. This laboratory report completes the first stage of construction.
Herein will be found ( i ) a statistical method of experiment in Psy- chical Research which, it is believed, will be acceptable to science and will prove adequate for resolving doubt and controversy concerning ,the alleged supernormal acquisition of knowledge (telepathy, lucidity or clairvoyance, or communication from discarnate intelligences capable of apprehending facts in our world) ; and (2) the results of the first appli- cations of this method.
It will be readily apparent to the scholar that much of the mono- graph has been written under great pressure, a circumstance regrettable but unavoidable; the work of investigation has not been permitted to suffer interruption, and it was not advisable to delay longer the first re- port from our laboratory. Haste has not been made at the expense of accuracy, however; and, although the literary quality of the exposition has undoubtedly suffered, it is hoped that the reports of the various researches will be found sufficiently clear and complete to serve their purpose. It should be mentioned, perhaps, that various labor-saving appli- ances have been utilized, such as calculating and adding machines, mathe- matical tables, and the slide-rule; the last mentioned having been con- sistently used in calculating percent?iges. Mathematical accuracy sufficient for our purpose has certainly been attained. And deficiencies in the plates must be credited to the writer's general ineptitude with India- ink.
The Division of Psychical Research is indebted to Dr. Lillien Jane Martin for Part V, a record of work which she has carried out independ- ent of the Psychical Research Foundation ; and also for her zeal in the work of equipping the Psychical Research laboratory.
The writer is under many special obligations to those who have con- tributed to the investigations, or to the compilation of this monograph: First and foremost to his colleagues in the Department of Psychology for innumerable courtesies with respect not only to sound counsel but also to the free use he has made of laboratory rooms, equipment, and students of their classes ; to the many students who have rendered faith-
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AUTHOR S PREFACE IX
ful service in the experiments reported herein; to the California Psy- chical Research Society for its generous cooperation in research in San Francisco; to Professor Milo A. Tucker, and to Mr. G. P. W. Jensen, for indispensable assistance in experiments with 'sensitives' in San Fran- cisco; to Professor E. P. Cubberley, Dean of the School of Education, for the generous loan of a dictaphone for two years; to the Assistant Registrar, J. E. McDowell, for access to students' percentile grades; to the Staff in the Library, particularly to Librarian G. T. Clark, and Miss Lena M. Keller, for assistance in the compilation of the catalogue of works in the psychical-research library; to the American Society for Psychical Research, the American Journal of Psychology, and the Psy- chological Review, for permission to use material published in their pages; to students, J. T. Reynolds, D. C. Upp, F. S. Fearing and Miss Else Nagel for faithful clerical and statistical assistance; and to many others for kind offices too numerous for separate mention.
The Fellow in Psychical Research.
Stanford University, July 27, 1917.
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CONTENTS
PAGE
Foreword. By Dr. David Starr Jordan v
Author's Preface vii
Index of Illustrations xv
Introduction. By Dr. Frank Angell xvii
PART I THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE.
The Present Importance of the Problem 3
The Role of Telepathy as an Alternative Hypothesis to Spirit Commun- ication 5
This Dominating Role of Telepathy Challenged 13
The Present Status of Telepathy 17
Further Experimental Work Imperative 23
Experiments on Thought-Transference 29
I. Guessing of Lotto-Block Numbers 31
Introduction 31
Method 35
Results 38
Number-Habits 43
Imagery 45
Conclusion 46
II. Guessing of Playing-Cards 48
Series I. Reagents Normal 48
Reagents 50
Method 51
Results 54
Analysis of Results 66
Illustration 67
Relation Between R Cases and Experimenter's Imagery 69
Relation Between R Cases and Congruity of Imagery 71
l^-^i^ Relation Between R Cases and Reagent's Feeling of Cer-
'^A tainty 73
^^ Variation in Distance 77
Variation in Time 77
Test for Retarded Effect 78
Statistical Treatment of Data by Use of Mathematical Formulae. . . 79
Application of Probability Formulae to Central Measures 80
Comparison of the Empirical with their Theoretical Distri- butions 95
Application of Usual Statistical Formulae to Central and Other
Single Measures 105
Statistical Expectation of Reagents 109
Analysis of Experience no
Application of Our Results to the Making of a "Mental Telepathist" 118
Control Series with Corneal Reflection 121
Conclusion 123
xi
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Xll CONTENTS
PAGE
Series II. Reagents 'Sensitive' 125
The Reagents 125
The Results 126
Psychological Analysis of Experience 130
The Professional Psychics 130
The Private Psychics 137
Conclusion 142
III. "The Feeling of Being Stared At" 144
The Prevalence of Belief Among University Students 144
Series I. The Reagent Required to Judge "Yes" or "No" 146
Results 147
Qualitative Results 150
Conclusion 152
Series II. The Reagent Requested to Record his Experience 153
Results 154
Supplementary Experiments 156
Series III. Multiple Starers 158
Results 159
Conclusion 167
PART II. EXPERIMENTS ON SUBLIMINAL IMPRESSION.
Orientation 171
Experiments 190
Division I. With the Wirthian Tachistoscope 191
Procedure 191
Results 192
Division II. With the Wundtian Tachistoscope 198
Procedure 198
Results 199
Division III. Peripheral Impression 205
Results 206
Division IV. Miscellaneous' Series 214
§1. Sumbliminal Impressions from Corneal Reflections 214
§11. Subliminal Impressions of Playing-Cards at a Distance 217
§111. The Whispering of the Stimulus 219
1. Letters and Digits 220
2. Playing-Cards 222
3. Numbers 222
§ IV. Involuntary Signals 223
Conclusion 224
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CONTENTS Xlll
PART III. MENTAL HABIT. AND INDUCTIVE PROBABILITY.
PAGE
Mental Habit 230
The Influence of Mental Habit upon Judgment 230
Population by Age 231
Terms of Criminal Sentences 234
Estimates of Star-Magnitudes 240
Students* Grades 247
Temperature on Pike's Peak 249
Temperature in Mauritius, in the Greenwich Observatory, in Hert- fordshire, and in Dundee 249
Cloudiness at Bremen 252
Rainfall in New England 252
Estimates of Time from Kymograph Time-Records 252
Estimates of Star-Transits 255
Estimates of Time and Space 262
Studies in Guessing 265
Distribution of the Number-Habit 271
Other Mental Habits 276
Explanatory Considerations 281
Application of Mental Habit to Experiments in Thought-Transference 291
Application of Mental Habit to Our Experiments on Subliminal Impression 309
Inductive Probability 313
Empirical and Theoretical Distributions 314
Empirical and Theoretical Central Measures 333
The Infinitesimal Probability 346
PART IV. EXPERIMENTS IN SOUND ASSIMILATION.
Introduction 369
Division I. Nonsense- Syllables 373
Method 373
Results 375
Section i. Syllables with Initial and Final Consonantal Sounds 375
Section 11. Syllables with an Initial or Final Consonantal Sound 379
Section iii. The Respective Consonantal Sounds 381
Division II. Simulated English Text 386
Dictation 1 388
Dictation II 390
Dictation III 391
Dictation IV 393
Dictation V 395
Numerical Results 395
Introspections 397
Conclusion 401
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xrV CONTENTS
PART V. CONTRIBUTIONS BY PROFESSOR LILLIEN JANE MARTIN.
PAGE
I. A Case of Pseudo- Prophecy 411
II. Local Ghosts and the Projection of Visual Images 413
III. An Experimental Study of the Subconscious 422
The Image Method versus the Automatic Writing and Speaking Methods
of Penetrating Below the Threshold of Consciousness 426
Automatic Speaking Method versus the Image Method 437
The Image Method versus the Pathological and the Psychoanalytical
Methods of Investigating the Subconscious 437
APPENDIX.
A. Tables 44i
B. Experiments in Long-Distance Thought-Transf erence 452
C. Grounds for Scientific Caution in the Acceptance of the "Proof" of
Thought-Transference 461
The Creery Experiments 463
The Smith-Blackburn Experiments 477
The "N"-Ray Delusion 495
Conclusion 499
D. Investigation with a "Trumpet" Medium. By the California Psychical
Research Society 503
Dr. Coover's Report 50S
1. Relation of the "Voices" to the Psychic's Physiological Processes... 506
2. Relation of the "Physical Phenomena" to the Psychic's Body 524
3. The Relation of the "Seance Personalities" to the Psychic's Mind... 535
E. Catalogue of Literature in the Library of Leland Stanford Junior University
Relating Directly or Indirectly to Psychical Research 551
Books 551
Periodicals and Proceedings 617
INDEXES.
Index of Names 625
Index of Subjects 629
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INDEX OF ILLUSTRATIONS
PLATE PAGB
I. Floor- Plan and Equipment of the Division of Psychical Research. xxiv II. Showing Mental Habit in the guessing of Lotto-Blocks 44
III. The limits of chance deviation in R cases on Card, Color, Number,
and Suit, for sets of 50 to 10,000 experiments 91
IV. The same ; for sets of 50 to 1000 experiments 93
V. Distribution of R guesses on the Card 99
VI. Distribution of R guesses on the Color 99
VII. Distribution of R guesses on the Number loi
VIII. Distribution of R guesses on the Suit 102
IX. Distribution of guesses wholly wrong 104
X. Deviation from probability expected by 52 reagents on Card, Color, Number and Suit, compared with the Limit of Chance and the
actual results iii
XI. Distribution of expected per cents of R cases compared with
chance distribution iii
XII. Distribution of the number of A grades and the number of A and
B grades given by one reagent. 100 reagents 113
XIII. Population of the United States by Age. Twelfth Census (1900). 232
XIV, The Same. Thirteenth Census (1910) 233
XV. Terms of criminal sentence in the United States. Eleventh
Census 235
XVI. Female sentences for grand larceny. 257 cases 236
XVII. Single commitments; actual sentence compared with sentence
permissible by law. 58 cases 237
XVIII. Terms of criminal sentence in England (Galton) 239
XIX. Magnitudes of the stars ; Students' Grades 243
XX. Corrected distribution of the Durchmusterung estimates 245
XXa. Estimates of star-magnitudes. Distribution of tenth magnitudes.. 246
XXI. Thermometric observations. Frequency of tenth degrees 251
XXII. Distribution of the final digit in judgments of various kinds over
the number series 253
XXIII. Distribution of estimates from kymograph time-records 254
XXIV. Star-transits. Distributions of tenths of a second, showing
r Equation decimale; Ages of the Latin dead 257
XXV. Star-transits (Continued). Showing independence of Viquation
decimale of practice, instrument, and voluntary correction 259
XXVI. Star-transits (Continued). Showing independence of Viquation
decimale of the special senses 261
XXVII. Time and space estimations, showing number-preference and the
"personal scale" 263
XXVIII. Guessing. Curves showing number-preferences 266
XXIX. Guessing (Continued). Curves showing a new type of "personal
scale" 269
XXX. Deviations from probability in the frequency the spots on playing- cards were drawn and guessed, showing influence of mental habit. 10,000 cases 270
XXXI. Frequency of occurrence of the respective spots in sets of 100 ex- periments, as drawn and as guessed. Showing distribution of
mental habit among 100 reagents 272
XXXII. Number-preferences 273
XV
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Xvi INDEX OF ILLUSTRATIONS
PLATE ^^^^
XXXIII. Distribution of numbers, drawn and guessed in lOO experiments. . . 274
XXXIV. Distribution of numbers, drawn and guessed in 1000 experiments. . 275 XXXV. Distribution of red cards, drawn and guessed in 100 experiments. . 276
XXXVI. Deviations from probability in frequency of suits drawn and
guessed. 10,000 cases ^1
XXXVII. Distribution of suit drawn and guessed in 100 experiments 278
XXXVIII. Deviations from probability in frequency of individual cards drawn
and guessed in 10,000 experiments 279
XXXIX. Distribution of the individual card drawn and guessed in 100 ex- periments 280
XL. Curves showing dependence of Viquation decimale upon calibra- tion-marks 288
XLI. Frequency curves of deviations of estimates of star-magnitudes from the Durchmusterung magnitudes, showing influence of
similar mental habits (Pickering) 295
XLII. Distributions of R cases in card-guessing 3^7
XLIII. Distributions of the occurrences of odd die-spots, and of white
balls drawn from an urn 319
XLIV. Distributions of the occurrences of a red card in drawings from a
shuffled pack, and in guesses of reagents 320
XLV. Distributions of "chance" events in the throwing of dice, and
drawing of balls from a bag 322
XL VI. Distributions of "chance" events in coin-tossing 324
XLVII. Distributions of "chance" events showing bias in dice 326
XLVIII. Runs in Monte Carlo Roulette, in coin-tossing, and to be expected
by chance 328
XLIX. Per cent of substitution for the respective simple consonantal
sounds heard through the dictaphone, telephone, and the air. . . 382
Plate A. Automatic writing. Observer M 431
Plate B. The same. Observer 0 435
Figure i. Characters used by Sidis 185
2. Characters used in the Wirthian tachistoscope 191
3. Characters used in the Wundtian tachistoscope 198
4. A comparison of the objective with the "personal scale" of the
meteorological observers on Pike's Peak 288
5. The arrangement of the 37 compartments in a Monte Carlo Roulette
wheel 328
6. "EDITOR" : Letters for a test in visual assimilation 404
7. Drawings made in a Smith-Blackburn experiment in thought-trans-
ference 481
8. The kymograph apparatus Opp. 508
9. Kymograph records, March 28 and April 4 Opp. 510
10. Respiration and pulse curves, "Psychic" normal 512 f.
11. The same. "Automatic" voice, "Katie" 514
12. The same. "Trumpet" voice, "Dr. Truman" 516 f.
13. The same. "Independent" voice, "Professor Wm. James" 518 f.
14. The same. Records from Miss Flatau 522
15. Smudge on kymograph record Opp. 526
16. The self-recording telegraph instrument Opp. 528
17. Record of contact on the scale-covers Opp. 530
18. Fabric imprint made by "James' " "right hand" Opp. 532
Fig. a.. Poster of the Memorial Arch made in 1903, and a photograph of it
taken after the earthquake in 1906 Opp. 412-
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INTRODUCTION BY
PROFESSOR FRANK ANGELL
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Psychology has, up to the present, shown no dis- position to make its own the problems of psychical research ; yet probably no one will be found to deny their importance. — Northcote W. Thomas : Thought- Transference, London, 1905, p. 20.
Psychical Research is at present in disrepute among scholars, largely because psychical researchers do not take a logical psychological attitude toward the phe- nomena they investigate. . . . The investigation of phe- nomena which are alleged to be not in accordance with accepted views of natural law, is a perfectly legitimate activity. — Knight Dunlap: A System of Psycholotiy, 1912, p. 343.
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INTRODUCTION
In January of 191 2 the writer was informed by Dr. Jordan, then President of the University, that Mr. Thomas Welton Stanford, brother of Leland Stanford and himself one of the University Trustees, had placed at the disposal of the University the sum of £10,000, the interest of which was to be applied to investigations in the field of what may be broadly termed Spiritualism and Psychical Research, and Dr. Jordan asked if the Department of Psychology was willing to assume the grave responsibility of applying the endowment to work in this field.
And here it must be frankly stated that the department felt that any impulsive or hasty acceptance of Mr. Stanford's generous offer was out of place; in justice to both Mr. Stanford and the University the matter was one that called for thoughtful consideration. For it was obvious that the implications inherent in investigations in psychic or spiritualistic phenomena would give the undertaking a different character from that obtaining in ordinary cases of endowments for scientific research. In the first place the problems to be investigated were intimately connected with religious beliefs and opinions of many devout persons, among them Mr. Stanford himself, whose house in Melbourne has long been the home of spiritualistic seances. But tenets of religious faith in St. Paul's sense of "the substance of things hoped for and the evidence of things not seen'' are beyond or above or at any rate outside, the methods of scientific investigation ; the Department of Psychology is a scientific department of the University and its methods of research must necessarily advance in accordance with the canons of scientific methods, that is, accurate ob- servation and careful verification of accessible phenomena. To subject matters on which good men and true had based comforting and abiding faith to the cold criticism of scientific reason would be, the writer felt, not only a delicate but perhaps a thankless task. In the next place the situation was further complicated in the country at large and especially in California by the presence among the devout Spiritualists of many false teachers who sought to exploit spiritualistic procedure for pecun- iary profit with the natural result of injuring and discrediting the cause of Spiritualism and perplexing those who wished to know who were genuine leaders of the faith. The findings of the Seybert,CpfflMssion of tjig Uqjversity of PprrnQYlyp^^fi had also contributed to the same result, especially among the universities. Mr. Henry Seybert, well-known as an
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XX INTRODUCTION
earnest believer in Spiritualism, presented to the University of Pennsyl- vania a sum of money sufficient to found a chair of philosophy and to defray the expenses of a commission to investigate the "systems of morals, religion, or philosophy . . . and particularly of modern Spirit- ualism." This commission was composed of ten members, among them Dr. W. Pepper, Provost of the University, Professor G. S. Fullerton, in- cumbent of the Chair of Philosophy, and Dr. Weir Mitchell, the well- known neurologist. To these were added Mr. T. R. Hazard, described as an uncompromising believer in Spiritualism. The commission investi- gated all the well-known professional mediums they could induce to come to Philadelphia: their findings were uniformly unfavorable to the pre- tensions of the mediums and, in most cases, they reported fraud. Among the conditions, consequently, which gave the Department pause in coming to a decision were what Sir W. F. Barrett has termed "the scornful at- titude of the scientific world" together with the somewhat delicate nature of Psychical Research on account of religious implications. As far as Mr. Stanford's attitude was concerned it was all the University could wish ; the endowment was wholly unconditioned and there were no limits as regards time and no suggestions as regards problems or results. In these respects, therefore, there was no reason why the University should not gladly accept the endowment. In addition the carte blanche given by Mr. Stanford freed the department from the feeling that it would be un- duly hampered in its investigations by religious complications; it was simply to be a matter of scientific investigation.
• The question then arose of whether in view of Professor Sidgwick*s authoritative utterance to the effect that Psychical Research so far as he could tell, had made no discernible progress in the last twenty years, the field was not a slough of despond through which no scientific progress was possible. The writer's opinion was that intensive investigation by trained psychologists devoting themselves wholly to this work, beginning with the simpler problems, would bring forth results of scientific value, though manifestly if Sidgwick's view of the impracticable nature of the field was even approximately correct, but slow progress could be ex- pected. However, before coming to any final decision in the matter, letters were sent to the psychology departments of other universities ask- ing their opinion of the probable worth of investigations in this field. The answers were uniformly favorable to the undertaking and from two especially, Cornell University and the University of California, there came valuable suggestions in regard to problems and to methods of investigation.
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INTRODUCTION XXI
Feeling then that the work could be taken up in fairness both to the University and to Mr. Stanford the Department of Psychology accepted the responsibility of administering the endowment. The endowment itself was large enough to defray the expenses of a Fellowship, to refit completely and equip the laboratory rooms assigned to the work by the Department and to supplement the apparatus which the Department was able to furnish with special instruments for Psychical Research. In addi- tion Mr. Stanford placed about £ioo a year at the disposal of the Univer- sity for the purchase of books on psychical research and finally added to these donations the large collection of 'apports* produced in the seances at his house in Melbourne.^
One of the reasons that may be assigned for the lack of progress in Psychical Research and spirituahstic problems of which Professor Sidgwick complains is in all probability that the greater part of the investigations have been carried on by amateurs rather than by 'professionals/ by those for whom the work was rather an avocation than a special calling. Thus the Seybert Commission, as the report states, was made up of men whose days were "already filled with duties which cannot be laid aside and who are, therefore, able to devote but a small portion of their time to these investigations." This condition is reflected in a great many of the pub- lications on Psychical Research. The writers have taken up the investi- gation in the spare hours of the day or the spare months of the year, and, considering the complexity and elusiveness of the phenomena involved, it is small wonder that progress has not been more marked. Closely allied with this is another factor which has been of no advantage to Psychical Research, either as regards its advancement or its standing in the eyes of the scientific world, and that is the factor of attributing to amateurs in psychical investigations the like authority which they enjoy in their chosen profession. It must be said with the utmost frankness that the mantle of Sir Oliver Lodge's great reputation as a physicist cannot be stretched to cover his work in Psychical Research and it is doubtful if Sir William Crooke's authority as a chemist has perceptibly swayed the minds of his colleagues in chemistry towards spiritualistic belief. Obviously, what is necessary for the advance of Psychical Research in the eyes of the scientific world is precisely what all other kinds of scientific work de- mand ; that is, the undivided time and attention of investigators possess-
1 Most of the books purchased with the funds are placed on the shelves of the general library. The 'apports' are kept in 'display* cases in a special room adjoining the laboratory. A plan of the laboratory for Psychical Research will be found at the end of this Introduction (see Plate I, p. xxlv).
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ing a special training for their work. In this field, for example, it would mean special extensive training in the psychology of motor automatisms and of subliminal impressions, in the ideational and affective processes underlying belief and conviction, in illusions of perception and the value of evidence. Through the endowment of Mr. Stanford this university was placed in a position to fulfill these conditions and to realize Sir Oliver Lodge*s wishes expressed years ago, for *'a laboratory with special ap- pliances." The selection of the incumbent of the fellowship was a matter of no less importance than the facilities for work, and after diligent in- quiry into the qualifications of men eligible for the position, the choice was made of Dr. J. E. Coover, — a well-trained and able psychologist and a mature man of highly judicial temperament. To dignify the fellowship in the regard of the university world, the Trustees conferred on Dr. Coover the rank of Assistant Professor. The investigations in this volume made by Dr. Coover, and the vast mass of data gathered by him are an index, or at least a partial index, of his unflagging devotion to the work. I say partial index as the time taken for the investigation of mediums in San Francisco was out of proportion to the amount of data collected. Too frequently these trips were barren of all results, the in- vestigator having spent hours in the dark awaiting manifestations which either wholly failed to appear or appeared but feebly and infrequently.
In selecting problems for investigation the logical postulate of sim- plicity was given great weight and for this reason "The Feeling of Being Stared At" was the first to be chosen. For a belief in the efficacy of this feeling is wide-spread among the students, it is a subject that admits of easy experimentation, and, what is highly important, it is directly con- nected with the general problem of telepathy. A further postulate of the work was to shape the early investigations to the material in hand, — in this case the numerous students taking work in psychology. Through them there was given an opportunity for statistical studies in telepathy along the lines laid down by the English Society for Psychical Research, and in addition there was always the chance in dealing with a large num- ber of individuals of discovering someone unusually gifted with tele- pathic powers.
Other investigations which could be conducted in situ were on prob- lems of subliminal activity, in mental habits or bias in forming judg- ments, and on the implications of spoken words (sound assimilation) all of which form necessary prolegomena to the clear understanding of spir- itualistic manifestations.
In view of the mass of work in evidence in the pages of this report it will be readily understood that time was lacking to go deeply into the
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subject of automatic activities, of automatic writing or speaking. The investigation of ^sensitives* or mediums was taken up after considerable experience in methods and procedure in testing psychical manifestations with students. The writer shares Professor Sir W. F. Barrett*s distrust of professional or paid mediums and of working in the dark, but Dr. Coover undertook investigations of this kind upon a guarantee of the good faith of the ^sensitives' by the California Psychical Research Society. It is to be regretted that the ^sensitives' felt unable to come to the University to develop their manifestations where they were best fitted to be tested and although a very cordial entente exists between Dr. Coover and the California Psychical Research Society in carrying out his inves- tigations, owing to the frequent indisposition of the 'sensitives,' the find- ings of this part of the report are more scanty than could be wished.
Somewhere Sir Oliver Lodge has raised the question of the advis- ability of investigating "that of which we are sure." "Why conduct ex- periments in hypnotism or telepathy?" to which he answers that "Belief is both the prelude to and the outcome of knowledge" and further "If a fact or a theory has had a prima facie case made out for it, subsequent investigation is necessary to examine and defend it."
Now so far as the matters of which Sir Oliver Lodge speaks are accessible to scientific investigation, no one would venture to demur to these statements. But the more intimate matters of religious faith the writer does not feel are accessible to experimentation. As to many phenomena which are often regarded as supernormal, the scientific world has no doubt but that with patient and impartial investigation they will ultimately be brought within the circle of the general laws of Psychology as has been the case with the once baffling phenomena of Hypnotism. But for the deeper-seated convictions of personal religion, scientific in- vestigation is out of place.
In establishing the fellowship for Psychical Research Mr. Stanford has made a substantial contribution toward delimiting the borders of these two regions of human experience, and in the matter presented in this volume the writer feels that a substantial contribution has been made to that side of Psychical Research which is accessible to scientific investi- gation.
Frank Angell. Stanford University, June I, 1917.
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INTRODUCTION
P
I vJMil
M Hi mmi : iMmi
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PART I. THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE.
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It is an obvious fact, but it is nevertheless a fact which we must repeat as often as possible, that in no way can psychical research be better aided than by con- stant and varied experiments on Thought-Transference in every form. — Frederic W. H. Myers: Proceedings S.P.R., 1884, 2:217.
Upon one other interest I have not yet touched — to me the weightiest and the farthest reaching of all.
No incident in my scientific career is more widely known than the part I took many years ago in certain psychic researches. Thirty years have passed since I published an account of experiments tending to show that outside our scientific knowledge there exists a Force exercised by intelligence differing from the ordi- nary intelligence conmion to mortals. ... I think I see a little farther now. . . . And were I now introducing for the first time these inquiries to the world of sci- ence I should choose a starting-point different from that of old. It would be well to begin with telepathy; with the fundamental law, as I believe it to be, that thoughts and images may be transferred from one mind to another without the agency of the recognized organs of sense — that knowledge may enter the human mind without being communicated in any hitherto known or recognized ways. — Sir William Crookes, in The Presidential Address, delivered to the British As- sociation for the Advancement of Science, at Bristol, September 1898, (Proceedings S. P. R., 14:2-3).
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The Present Importance of the Problem.
An examination of the literature of Psychical Research reveals the paramount importance of Telepathy, or Thought-Transference,* among all the various kinds of phenomena which fall within its field. Not only have the principal psychical research societies given the investigation of this process a prominent place in their formally announced aims of or- ganization and given it their chief attention during the earlier years of their work, but at the present time, when both the English and the American societies are seeking indisputable evidence for the survival of human personality beyond bodily death, this process threatens to cut to the root of their proof.
The evidence regarded by the leaders in psychical research as the most promising for proof of survival lies in the content of the utter- ances (spoken, written or signaled) proceeding from an "automatist" or a "psychic," usually entranced. That it cannot be regarded as merely normal phenomena is most positively affirmed by those who have exam- ined it with the greatest care ; and some proponents of its extra-normal character are celebrated psychologists, whose professional and critical judgment applies precisely to the normal and abnormal behavior of the mind.
Professor James has several times given voice to his position. As early as 1890 he wrote concerning Mrs. Piper's "messages" :
My later knowledge of her sittings and personal acquaintance with her has led me ... to believe that she has supernormal powers, (p. 652). .
^Although these terms are sometimes assigned different meanings, they have not been shown to be different kinds of functions, and for our purpose they may be regarded as synonymous, meaning an influence of one mind upon another other- wise than through the recognized sensory channels; the influence may take the form of a sensation, an idea, a thought, a desire, an emotion, or any other assign- able content of consciousness.
3
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And in another paragraph :
Taking everything that I know of Mrs. Piper into account, the result b to make me feel as absolutely certain as I am of any personal fact in the world that she knows things in her trances which she cannot possibly have heard in her wak- ing state, (pp. 658-9).*
In 1896:
In the trances of this medium, I cannot resist the conviction that knowledge appears which she has never gained by the ordinary waking use of her eyes and ears and wits. (p. 319).*
And in 1909, when summing up his "Final Impressions" after twenty- five years' experience in psychical research, concerning automatic utter- ances he wrote :
When imposture has been checked off as far as possible, when chance coin- cidence has been allowed for, when opportunities for normal knowledge on the part of the subject have been noted, and skill in '^fishing" and following clues un- wittingly furnished by the voice or face of bystanders have been counted in, those who have the fullest acquaintance with the phenomena admit that in good me- diums there is a residuum of knowledge displayed that can only be called super- normal: the medium taps some source of information not open to ordinary peo- ple. Myers used the word "telepathy" to indicate that the sitter's own thoughts or feelings may be thus directly tapped, (pp. 188-9).
I wish to go on record for the presence, in the midst of all the humbug, of really supernormal knowledge, [with strong mediums], (p. 200).*
Professor Floumoy, Professor of Psychology in the University of
Geneva, in 1900, said:
Taking everything into consideration, I am inclined to believe that Mile. Smith, in truth, possesses real phenomena of clairvoyance, not, however, passing beyond the possible limits of telepathy ... (p. 397).'
Podmore, one of the most conservative writers, and perhaps the most critical student, in the English Society, in 1910, said:
The automatists unquestionably show that they possess information which could not have reached their consciousness by normal means, and it is in tracing this information to its source that the main interest of the inquiry and the main burden of proof will be found, (p. 302).*
â– James : A record of observations of certain phenomena of trance. Proceed- ings S. P. R., 1890, 6:651-659.
« James : The Will to Believe. New York, 1899.
• James: Memories and Studies. New York, 191 1.
• Floumoy, Th. : From India to the Planet Mars, a study of a case of som- nambulism with glossolalia. (tr. Vermilye). New York, C1900.
• Podmore, Frank : The Newer Spiritualism. London, 1910.
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The Role of Telepathy as an Alternative Hypothesis to Spirit Communication.
Sir Oliver Lodge, in his Presidential Address to the English So- ciety for Psychical Research, in 1902, pointed out the alternate hy- potheses for "trance lucidity and clairvoyance" as (i) Telepathy from the living, and (2) Communication from the departed;^ and in 1913 he restated his conviction that telepathy serves as an hypothetical explana- tion for a multiplicity of phenomena, — "it is the minimum hypothesis." •
A classification of the factors involved in trance utterances was of- fered by Frederick W. H. Myers :•
(a) Dreamlike and confused talk from the subliminal self,
(b) Facts impl3ring the perception of events occurring at a distance— dair- vojrance,
(c) Facts existing in the minds of the sitters,
(d) Facts not known to sitters but which would have been known to the de- parted persons.
And in the same place he affirms :
I believe, then, that I have good reason for ascribing many of these mes- sages to definite surviving personalities, known while on earth to friends of mine whose presence with Mrs. Thompson has evoked the messages, or to myself. I believe that most of these messages are uttered through Mrs. Thompson's organ- ism by spirits who for the time inform or "possess''' that organism; and that some arc received by her spirit in the unseen world, directly from other spirits, and are then partially remembered, so that the sensitive can record them on emerging from the ecstatic state, (p. 73).
The seriousness of telepathy as an alternative hypothesis is stated by N. W. Thomas, Professor Floumoy, and Professor Hyslop, among others. Thomas :
The evidence for spiritualism . . . suffers ... so long as it is conceivable, if perhaps improbable, that all the facts on which spiritualists rely, can be ex- plained away by a telepathic hypothesis, (p. 178). . . . The extent of the evi- dence for spiritualism must remain a matter of doubt, and be liable to reduction in proportion as we can justly ascribe to telepathy the supercognitive phenomena of trance mediumship. (pp. 178-9).**
'Lodge, Sir Oliver: President's address. Proceedings S, P, R,, 1902, 17:38. « Lodge : Telepathy as a fact of experience. Bedrock, 1913, 2 : 57 ff. •Myers, F. W. H. : On the trance-phenomena of Mrs. Thompson. Proceed- ings S,P.R., 1902, 17:67-74.
*o Thomas, Northcote W. : Thought Transference. London, 1905.
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Flournoy:
Certain it is that telepathy takes away all evidential value from certain com- munications received which might otherwise be thought to be spiritistic in char- acter, (p. 209).**
Hyslop :
The crucial test of spiritism, in this and all other cases, must turn upon the question of telepathy to furnish the data upon which any secondary consciousness has to work."
This dilemma may be more adequately appreciated by the reader after he gets a closer view of available illustrations in the discussions offered by the leaders in psychical research by way of interpretation of trance and other automatic communications. The alleged super-normal character of these communications may be conceived to vary in a graded series from (i) the simplest case of telepathic reproduction of the sitter's present thought, through (2) similar reproduction of the sitter's forgotten memories or unnoticed sensory impressions, (3) simi- lar reproduction of the experience of some third living person ("tele- pathic a trois"), and (4) the reproduction of the life memories of de- ceased persons, to (5) more or less direct communication from persist- ing and still active discamate personalities. The representative discus- sions to be reviewed, although they may not be conveniently grouped in a corresponding series, apply to one or more of the members of the series.
First, The reproduction of the sitter's conscious or subliminal ex- perience :
Professor James says :
"Telepathy" seems fairly established as a fact, though its frequency is still questionable: . . . Our rule of presumption should lead us, then, to deny spirits and to explain the Piper-phenomena by a mixture of fraud, subconscious personation, lucky accident, and telepathy, whenever such an explanation remains possible, (p. 34)-
[Yet,] the personation, fishing, guessing, using lucky hits, etc., in Mrs. Piper, may be, as it were, the mechanical means by which "spirits" succeed in making her living organism express their thought, however imperfectly, (p. 35).
I myself can perfectly imagine spirit-agency, and I find my mind vacillating about it curiously, (p. 35). **
11 Flournoy, Theodore: Spiritism and Psychology, (tr. Carrington). Lon- don, 191 1.
''Hyslop I A further record of observations of certain trance phenomena. Proceedings S, P. R., 1901, 16:292.
i» James: Report on Mrs. Piper's Hodgson-control Proceedings S.P.R., 1909, 33:2-121.
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Professor Floumoy says:
All the facts of lucidity (clairvoyance, second sight, etc) which arc attrib- uted to Mile. Smith may be explained by telepathic impressions proceeding from living persons, (p. 396)."
Dr. Hodgson, the skilled researcher, sent by the English S. P. R. to investigate the "phenomena" of Mrs. Piper in America, made a vo- luminous report in 1892, in which he said:
Putting aside all the facts which can be explained by direct thought-trans- ference from the sitter, and considering simply the information given which was not known to the sitter and which purports to come from "deceased" persons, but which was known to, and afterwards verified by, distant living persons,— is there sufficient ground for concluding that Phinuit is in direct conmiunication with "deceased" persons, and that he is a deceased person himself as he alleges? I think that the evidence here presented, together with that previously published, is very far from sufficient to establish any such conclusion.
[The most satisfactory hypothesis seems to be that in her automatic trance] a secondary personality of Mrs. Piper either erroneously believes itself to be, or consciously and falsely pretends to be, the "spirit" of a deceased human being, Phinuit (p. 57)."
But in a later report, which included evidences of the continued exist- ence of the late "George Pelham," he concluded:
. . . Many of what were once difficulties to myself in the way of believing that these phenomena were the result of the agency of "deceased" persons, have been removed by the fuller evidence presented by [the later control] G. P. and other communicators acting directly, (p. 405). . . . What my future beliefs may be, I do not know. Rontgen suggested that certain special effects produced in his famous experiments were due to rays whose vibrations were longitudinal to the path of propagation, but later experiments have tended to show that they are due to vibrations of the same general character as those with which we were familiar, but of a higher order of frequency. And it may be that further experi- ment in the lines of investigation before us may lead me to change my view; but at the present time I cannot profess to have any doubt but that the chief "com- municators," to whom I have referred in the foregoing pages, are veritably the personalities that they claim to be, that they have survived the change we call death, and that they have directly communicated with us whom we call living, through Mrs. Piper's entranced organism, (pp. 405-6) .^^
1^ Floumoy, Th. : From India to the Planet Mars, a study of a case of som- nambulism with glossolalia. (tr. Vermilye). New* York, cigoo.
^^ Hodgson, Richard: A record of observations of certain phenomena of trance. Proceedings S. P. R., 1892, 8: 1-167.
1* Hodgson, Richard : A further record of observations of certain phenomena of trance. Proceedings S.P,R,, 1897-8, 13:284-582.
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Concerning later Piper sittings, Sir Oliver Lodge, in 1909, said:
On the whole, they tend to render certain the existence of some outside in- telligence or control, distinct from consciousness, and as far as I can judge from the subconsciousness also, of Mrs. Piper or other medium. ... I feel that we arc in secondary or tertiary touch — at least occasionally — ^with some stratum of the surviving personality of the individuals who are represented as sending messages, (p. 282).!^
And concerning the Mrs. Grove case, he wrote:
This series, for several reasons, must be regarded as the most strictly evi- dential of all; and a decided unity of character and of message is preserved, no matter through what medium the communication comes. But the hypothesis of telepathy from the sitter, if stretched sufficiently, will cover all the reported por- tions; and in such a case this notion constitutes a difficulty which can hardly be avoided. At the same time I must say that I find this hypothesis not very prob- able,— it does not at all satisfy my mind as an explanation. On the whole, the surviving and communicating intelligence hypothesis commends itself to me as the most I'kely. (p. 283) .^^
Hyslop, in his report on his study of the "phenomena" of Mrs. Pi- per for evidences of spirit identity, said:
The evidence for personal identity in this record is so overwhelming, that when we dismiss fraud from consideration and reckon the mistakes and confusions in the favor of spiritism instead of difficulties and objections, we should not natur- ally suspect telepathy as the most probable hypothesis in the case. The specter which that doctrine raises is of the Society's own making in phenomena wholly outside the field I am considering here, and obtains its cogency far more from our mental habits than from the facts of this record, (p. 242).^*
Podmorc, in 1903, wrote:
Prior to the publication, in i8p8, of Dr. Hodgson's monumental report on Mrs. Piper's later trances (Proceedings S,P.R,, vol. 13), I had held that her utter- ances were amongst the strongest evidences which we possessed for telepathy, or at least for some supernormal faculty of acquiring information outside the possible radius of the senses; on the other hand, it seemed to me that the indications of the action of discamate spirits were so slight and shadowy as to be hardly worth taking into account. After some conversations with Dr. Hodgson during his visit to this country in 1897, and careful study of the Report issued shortly afterwards, I inclined to the opinion that the case of spirit intercourse was at any rate strong enough to be accepted as a provisional hypothesis. . . . The effect of . . .
1^ Lodge, Sir Oliver : Report on some trance communications received through Mrs. Piper. Proceedings S. P. R., 23 : 127-285.
i« Hyslop, James H.: A further record of observations of certain trance phenomena. Proceedings S.P.R., 1901, 16:4-648.
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[Professor Hyslop's] report on my mind has been not merely to discredit altogether the spirit hypothesis so far as this particular series of stances is concerned, but restrospcctively to cast some shadow of doubt on the results previously recorded by Dr. Hodgson, (p. 375). *•
In 1908:
On the one hand, it seems clear that the trance consciousness of Mrs. Piper, as of all other so-called mediums, is apt on very small provocation to personify itself, and that the personification may be shaped by the suggestions of those pres- ent. In Mrs. Piper's case we have ground for assuming that such suggestions may often be conveyed telepathically ; in short, that the dramatic personalities of the so-called controls may actually be built up out of the material unconsciously sup- plied by the sitters, and that the intimate personal details revealed in the trance utterances may be telepathically filched from the same source. The limitations of the knowledge displayed, and the occasional disingenuousness, forbid us to accept these conmiunications as authentic and unembarrassed messages from the dead, (p. 329).*^
And in 1910, concerning the phenomena of the same psychic he wrote :
The change in the character of the recent sittings and the remarkable and life-like development of some of the trance personalities is, no doubt, consistent with the hypothesis of spirit control. But it would not be safe to build much upon such an argument. . . . The only test that we can apply to these earlier sittings lies in the substance of the communications themselves. The great bulk of the in- formation given was, of course, within the knowledge of the sitter, and, apart from its dramatic form, there is no ground for assuming any other source than telepathy from his mind. (p. 305)."
Floumoy wrote:
We might say that telepathy between the living— particularly between the medium and members of a spiritistic group — is one of these laws, although still vague as to its necessary conditions. The only point which appears to me worthy of being raised, because it is so often observed, is that the ideas of the sitters which have the greatest chance of being transmitted to the medium are those in a sort of nascent or evanescent condition, upon the threshold between consciousness and subconsciousness, and passing from one to the other, (pp. 211-212).
Many people going to consult a medium are astonished that the medium tells them nothing that they are thinking about, but reveals to them details of which they did not dream. . . . The psychic processes about to blossom or to fade away in the penumbra of consciousness have more power of radiating to other
*• Podmore, Frank : On Professor Hyslop's Report on his sittings with Mrs. Piper. Proceeedings S.P.R., 1903, 17:374-388.
*o Podmore: The Naturalization of the Supernatural. New York, 1908. ^ Podmore : The Newer Spiritualism. London, 1910.
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brains than those which are partly immovable— either in the foreground of atten- tion or in the lowest stratum of the subconsciousness, (p. 21a). <<
This principle of direct communication between minds is curiously extended to unsuspected lengths, so firmly has it taken hold of the pub- lic mind: Maeterlinck*' attributed the success of the Elberfeld horses in their performances alleged to express a high degree of intelligence, to subliminal telepathic transference of the answers to problems from the human to the equine mind. F. C. S. Schiller remarking this, says :
To test the telepathic hypothesis he tried a number of experiments, of which the answers were not known to him or any one present, and found that the horses answered as correctly as when the answers were knownl . . . [He] betakes himself to the suggestion that some animals, e. g., horses, dogs, and cats (but not elephants and monkeys), are natural "psychics," and so can tap subliminally what Professor James called a great "cosmic reservoir," in which all knowledge is con- served. ... It will be interesting, however, to see whether experimental ccm- firmation of this mystical h3rpothesis can be obtained, and also whether any of the many philosophers who profess to hold it on theoretic grounds will take any steps to verify it practically.**
Second, The reproduction of the experience of some third living son (telepathie a trois).
Andrew Lang, in 1900, wrote:
I see no reason for the hypothesis that Mrs. Piper ever receives telepathic communications from the dead. Has she ever communicated a single thing that was known to a dead person, but to no living man or woman? Such are my doubts, (p. 52)."
And Frank Podmore, in 1910:
The analysis of these cases where information unknown to the sitter was given by the trance intelligence scarcely adds strength to the hypothesis of spirit communication. In every case the information given was, or may have been, within the knowledge of some living mind. In many cases all the circumstances point to some form of telepathy between the distant agent and the trance intelli- gence, mediated, as it would seem in all cases, by the presence of a common ac- quaintance in the person of the sitter, (p. 311).
The trance personalities, then, have never told us anything which was not
"Floumoy, Theodore: Spiritism and Psychology, (tr. Carrington). Lon- don, 191 1.
*» Neue Rundschau, June 1914.
*^ Journal S.P.R., July 1914, 16:271-2.
** Lang, Andrew : Discussion of the trance phenomena of Mrs. Piper. III.— Reflections on Mrs. Piper and telepathy. Proceedings S.P.R., 1900-01, 15:59-52.
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possibly, scarcely anything which was not probably, within the knowledge of some living person, (p. 312) .*•
Third, The reproduction of the same or similar ideas through two or more independent automatists, purporting to be communications from the same discamate personality, (cross-correspondences, simple).
Miss Alice Johnson observes :
If we simply find the same idea expressed— even in different forms— by both [independent automatists] ... it may . . . most easily be explained by telepathy between them. (p. 37S)-*^
And Professor A. C. Pigou suggests** that telepathic capacity of the order illustrated by the experiments of the Misses Miles and Rams- den *• (telepathy at a distance) is adequate to explain the single corre- spondences in the communications of independent psychics.
Fourth, The reproduction through two or more independent autom- atists of ideas the relation of which is known only to the communicat- ing intelligence, presumably a discarnate personality, and can be found by the researchers only after painstaking study and search (cross-cor- respondences, complementary).
Miss Johnson describes this phenomenon:
What we get is a fragmentary utterance in one script, which seems to have no particular point or meaning, and another fragmentary utterance in the other, of an equally pointless character: but when we put the two together, we see that they supplement one another, and that there is apps^rently one coherent idea under- lying both, but only partially expressed in each. . . . It is . . . difficult to suppose that the telepathic perception of one fragment could lead to the production of another fragment which can only, after careful comparison, be seen to be related to the first, (p. 37S).
[The corresponding statements relate] to events in the present which, to all intents and purposes, are unknown to any living person, since the meaning and point of her script is often uncomprehended by each automatist until the solution is found through putting the two scripts together, (p. 377).
It was not the automatists that detected [this new experimental procedure] . . . but a student of the scripts; it has every appearance of being an element imported from outside; it suggests an independent invention, an active intelli- gence constantly at work in the present, not a mere echo or remnant of individ- ualities of the past (p. 377),
**Podmore, Frank: The Newer Spiritualism. London, 1910. *^ Johnson, Alice: On the automatic writing of Mrs. Holland. Proceedings S,P.R., 1909, 21:166-391.
» Proceedings S. P. R., 23 : 292-3. «• Proceedings S. P. R., 21 :6o-93.
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Perhaps the most serious practical objection to the hypothesis that the con- trols invented this special plan of cross-correspondences would be that it might have been a subliminal invention of Mrs. Verrall's, since it is on her script that the hypothesis is chiefly based, and it is there that we find the most complete ex- position of it. There are, however, a few indications of it in Mrs. Holland's script also, quite independently of Mrs. Verrall's. (p. 389) .»»
Professor Pigou comments:
All the characteristics of the best cross-correspondences seem to me to be produced in this experiment. Since, therefore, there are strong grounds for be- lieving that the agent here was the subliminal consciousness of Mr. and Mrs. Verrall, or of both together, there arc also strong grounds for believing that the manufacture of cross-correspondences of the required type falls within the com- pass of incarnate mind. In view of this fact I conclude that the occurrence of these correspondences in other cases does not make probable the operation of any discamate mind. (p. 302) .^^
Miss Johnson again says:
Are we to suppose, then, that the unconscious and involuntary telepathic ef- forts of Mrs. Verrall and of Mr. Piddington, acting unconsciously, involuntarily, and telepathically in combination with each other, produced the whole cross-cor- respondence? (p. 255).
. . . There are. indeed, two or three items which some of the automatists may be supposed to have borrowed telepathically from one another. . . . But look- ing at the scripts as a whole, we find an extraordinary variety in the methods chosen to approach the same idea. ... (p. 256). It appears to me, in short, that many of the items of this cross-correspondence afford strong evidence of the design or agency of some intelligence which was cognisant of the whole scheme, as finally revealed . . . and it seems to me difficult to attribute so complete a knowledge of it to the subliminal consciousness either of Mrs. Verrall or Mr. Piddington. (p. 261)."
And after still further study, Miss Johnson observes:
I would next point out that, while the cross-correspondences between the scripts of different writers seemed at first to consist merely of verbal similarities or coincidences of topic, further study showed that they were far more compli- cated and elaborate than we had supposed, involving many more scripts and often several different subjects; sometimes including items of literary or historical in- terest unknown to the writers whose script furnished the cross-correspondence
•<> Johnson, Alice: On the automatic writing of Mrs. Holland. Proceedings S, P. R,, 1909, 21 : 166-391.
»* Pigou, Professor A. C: Psychical research and survival after bodily death. Proceedings S, P. R,, 1909, 23 : 286-303.
"Johnson, Alice: Second report on Mrs. Hc^land's script. Proceedings S. P. R., 1910, 34 : 201-263.
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THE PRESENT IMPORTANCE OF THE PROBLEM 13
and characteristic in many ways of the supposed "author/' and in general more and more difficult to explain on the hypothesis of the unaided subliminal powers of the writers, (p. I5S).»«
Podmore writes:
No person who carefully studies the records would think it possible to at- tribute all these numerous and well-attested coincidences to fraudulent design or the mere chance association of ideas. If we reject, for the present, at any rate, the explanation suggested by many of the utterances themselves, that of commu- nication from the dead, we must seek for some other cause adequate to the ef- fects. There remains only the agency which has been provisionally named telep- athy. . . . The establishment of such a faculty, if only as the vestige of a prim- itive mode of sensibility, now superseded by articulate speech, would surely be a result worth all the labor spent [in this field], (p. 316).
But whatever the explanation of this particular series of coincidences [Ver- rall-Frith-Holland-Piper "The Sevens Incident"] I see no evidence whatever to justify the assumption, even provisionally, of a directing intelligence other than those of the automatists concerned. It would appear, on the contrary, that this case has important bearings upon the interpretation of the evidence as a whole. Not only does it vindicate, in the least equivocal fashion, the action of telepathy from the living, but it further invalidates by anticipation all the evidence for the agency of the dead which might have been derived from "posthumous" letters, and has thus deprived us of what would have seemed an important, though not, of course, a crucial, test. (p. 276).
In fact, the investigators themselves now recognize that the primitive theory of possession, the theory advocated in a modified form by Dr. Hodgson and still held by most Spiritualists, can no longer be defended. They have substituted for it a theory of telepathic interaction between the mind of the automatist and other minds, of the living or of the dead. (p. 298).**
This Dominating Role of Telepathy Challenged.
But this dominating role of the hypothesis of telepathy in the ex- planation of trance utterances has not been tmcontested, and that from quite diverse quarters:
First, TeUpathie d trois, it is claimed, has not been proved. Lodge, in 1902, said:
Returning to the subject of trance-lucidity generally, I wish to emphasize my conviction that an explanation based on telepathy as a vera causa can be pressed too far. Telepathy is the one ultra-normal human faculty to the real- ity of which most of those who have engaged in these researches are prepared to assent: that is, to assent to it as a bare fact, a summary of certain observed phe-
*« Johnson, Miss Alice : A reconstruction of some "Concordant Automatisms." Proceedings S.P,R., 1914, 27:1-156.
"Podmore, Frank: The Newer Spiritualism. London, 1910.
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nomena; but its laws are unknown and its scope and meaning are not yet appar- ent, (p. 39). Until we can answer these questions ... it is scarcely possible to regard telepathy, even from the sitter, as a legitimate explanation of much of the clairvoyance or lucidity noticed in trance utterances. It may have to be assumed as the least strained explanation, but it cannot with certainty be definitely asserted to be the correct one, even when it would easily cover the facts; still less is it permissible, except as the vaguest and most groping hypothesis, to press it when- ever convenient beyond the limits of experiment into an extrapolated region, and to suppose that the minds of entirely disconnected and unconscious strangers at a distance are actually read: when it has never been experimentally shown that they can be read at all. (p. 39).**
Second, Telepathy, as supported by "spontaneous cases" (as, appari- tions of the living or the djring), is not proved. Podmore wrote, in 1894:
The kind of evidence now to be considered the coincidence of some spon- taneous affection of the percipient with some event in the life-history of the per- son presumed to be the agent, as when one sees the apparition of a friend at the time of his death — is of inferior cogency in two ways [to the evidence from ex- perimental cases] : the coincidences are neither so numerous nor so exact ; and the risk of error in the record is far greater, (p. I43).**
And in 1910:
It is hardly necessary to say that these faculties (telepathy, clairvoyance, precognition, and the like) have not yet been admitted to the rights of citizenship in the republic of science, though one of them (telepathy) has filed a petition for naturalization. Let us examine first the claims of this aspirant, telepathy. . . . Now, the main evidence for the operation of this presumed faculty of telepathy consists of experiments in which the two parties to the transfer, the agent and the percipient, were in the same room, or, at any rate, within a few yards of each other. Many series of successful experiments in the transference of ideas and sensations have been conducted under these conditions. . . . But it was found that a slight increase in the distance exercised a marked effect on the result . . . There have been a few isolated instances, and a few short series of experiments, in which it is claimed that definite ideas of numbers, objects, or pictures have been telepathically transferred between agent and percipient when separated by distances varying from hundreds of yards to hundreds of miles. But when we remember the habitual inaccuracy of untrained investigators, and the various sources of error in experiments of this kind, together with the practical certainty that the successes reported, even if recorded with perfect accuracy, bear but an infinitesimal proportion to the unrecorded failures, it is impossible to assign much
"Lodge, Sir Oliver: President's address. Proceedings S.P.R,, 1902, 17:
37-57.
••Podmore: Apparitions and Thought-Transference, an examination of the evidence for Telepathy. London, 1894.
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wdght to these sporadic instances of "thought transference at a distance." (pp. 21-23) w
We can hardly be justified in making the spontaneous phenomena [appari- tions at the time of death] the basis of a theory of telepathy, (p. 26). ... Con- sidered by themselves, they hardly carry weight enough to count; it is only because of their presumed kinship with the manifestations of experimental telepathy that they have any claim to be heard at alL (p. 26).*^
Carrington, 1908:
Without experimental evidence, we should certainly be unwarranted in inventing that theory [telepathy] to explain the spontaneous cases, (p. 198).**
Tuckett, 191 1 :
The evidence for telepathy is at first sight most striking and abundant, so that a belief in its reality is now almost universal, at any rate outside strictly scientific circles, (p. 107). . . . Scientifically all one can say is that the evidence for telepathy is wonderfully suggestive, (p. 109).'*
And James, 1909:
The peculiarity of the case is just that there are so many sources of possible deception in most of the observations that the whole lot of them may be worth- less, (p. 175). *<>
Third, Telepathy as supported by direct experiment is not proved. Hyslop, in his introduction to one of Carrington's books, published in 1908, says:
Mr. Carrington brings out clearly that it [telepathy] is not to be regarded as an explanation of anything, and is only a name for facts requiring such an explanation. This is of all things one of the most important qualifications with which the term is to be used. Moreover, it is well to keep in mind that, even as an alleged fact of the supernormal kind, it is not a generally accepted phe- nomenon in the scientific world. Only a few men seriously believe in it, and others are willing to speak and think of it tolerantly in order to escape a pro- founder alternative, (pp. 11-12).**
James, in 1896, wrote:
No mere reader [of the experimental results] can be blamed, however, if
*^Podmore, Frank: The Newer Spiritualism. London, 191a ** Carrington, Hereward : The Coming Science. Boston, 1908. ** Tuckett, Ivor li.: The Evidence for the Supernatural, a critical study made with "uncommon sense." London, 191 1.
^ James: Memories and Studies. New York, 191 1. ^Carrington, Hereward: The Coming Science. Boston, 1908.
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he demand, for so revolutionary a belief, a diore overwhelming bulk of testi- mony than has yet been supplied, (p. 309).**
Jastrow, in 1900:
That there is something in these results to be explained is admitted : whether the results have been obtained and recorded in such a way as to contain the clue to their explanation cannot be affirmed; whether our present state of knowledge enables us to explain them may be argued pro and con; whether they are worth serious attention is also a debatable question; but none of these conditions war- rants a resort to the telepathic hypothesis, (pp. 98-9) .*«
What is the logical conclusion to be drawn from the data oflferable in evi- dence of some supersensory form of thought-transference ... ? . . . I can say no more in dismissing the topic than that to me the phenomena represent a complex conglomerate, in which imperfectly recognized modes of sense-action, hyper- aesthesia and hysteria, fraud, conscious and unconscious, chance, collusion, simi- larity of mental processes, an expectant interest in presentiments and a belief in their significance, nervousness and ill health, illusions of memory, hallucina- tions, suggestion, contagion, and other elements enter into the composition; while defective observation, falsification of memory, forgetfulness of details, bias and prepossession, suggestion from others, lack of training and of a proper inves- tigative temperament, further invalidate and confuse the records of what is sup- posed to have been observed. Many of the reported facts are not facts at all; others are too distortedly and too deficiently reported to be either intelligible or suggestive; some are accurately observed and properly recorded, and these some- times contain a probable suggestion of their natural explanation, sometimes must be put down as chance, and more often must be left unexplained. To call this absence of an explanation telepathy is surely no advance; to pose this hypothetic process as the modus operandi of any result that can be even remotely and con- tingently otherwise accounted for seems superfluous; to actually use this h}rpothesis to accotmt for still more obscure and more indefinite and less clearly established phenomena is a most egregious logical sin. (pp. 103-4) .*»
And N. W. Thomas, in 1905 :
The statistical method ... has been applied to experimental thought-trans- ference data, but it has hardly been recognized that the few complete series which have been published are insufficient even to demonstrate the mere fact of telepa- thy ... It would be well for the Society for Psychic Research to recognize this and organize further experiments on a large scale before assuming, as its mem- bers commonly do in discussions on trance mediumship, that telepathy is a vera causa, and not only needs no further demonstration, but may be invoked on any and every occasion, regardless of the fact that, in so doing, a role is frequently assigned to it which may well stagger the imagination, though no evidence, scien- tific or otherwise, has ever been presented for the telepathic power in the extreme
« James: The Will to Believe. New York, 1899.
** Jastrow, Jos.: Fact and Fable in Psychology. Boston, 190a
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THE PRESENT IMPORTANCE OF THE PROBLEM 17
fonn in which it is invoked, to explain away experiments more readily explained on a spiritistic hypothesis, (pp. 177-8).**
The Present Status of Telepathy,
The hypothesis of telepathy, then, is a serious competitor with the spiritistic hypothesis in the explanation of trance and other automatic utterances, and is seriously employed by the foremost psychical re- searchers. This important role, however, is challenged by equally prom- inent researchers and students of psychical phenomena, challenged in every phase of its alleged operation from its more complex to its sim- plest forms.
It might be well, therefore, to inquire what status the telepathic hypothesis occupies in the minds of the foremost psychical researchers and of such psychologists as give it attention. Let it be recalled that one of the principal aims of the Society for Psychical Research at the time of its founding, in 1882, was the investigation of thought-transfer- ence, and that within ten years the Society presented the great bulk of its evidence in its voluminous Proceedings. Some of the leading re- searchers who had charge of the investigation had already been con- vinced by experimental evidence, of the fact of telepathy, before this organized effort to produce scientific proof was begun; and others be- came convinced in the course of investigation.
It will be in the interest of economy if in our canvass of opinion we select more recent statements, and display more freely the more critical but not the extreme opinions.**
** Thomas, Northcote W.: Thought Transference. London, 1905.
*'The reader is referred for systematic reviews of the evidence to the following works:
Sir Oliver Lodge: The Survival of Man. New York: MoflFat, 1909.
Professor W. F. Barrett: Psychical Research. London, 191 1.
Frank Podmore: Apparitions and Thought-Transference. London: Scott, 1894. The Naturalization of the Supernatural. New York: Putnams, 1908. Telepathic Hallucinations. Halifax: Milner, n. d.
N. W. Thomas: Thought Transference. London, 1905.
Ivor LI. Tuckett: The Evidence for the Supernatural. London: Paul, 191 1.
James H. Hyslop: Psychical Research and the Resurrection. Boston: Small, 1908.
G. Stanley Hall: Am. Jr. Psychology, 1888, i:i28ff.; 1895, 7:i35ff.
For recent controversy, see articles by Tuckett, Lodge, Hill, Lankester, "A Business Man," Armstrong, and 'The Hermit of Prague," in Bedrock, A Quar- terly Review of Scientific Thought. London, vols, i and 2 (1912-14).
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For Baldwin's Dictionary of Philosophy and Psychology, Mrs. Sidgwick, in 1902, wrote:
The existence of telepathy is not yet generally admitted by the scientific world, but it has been one of the main functions of the Society for Psychical Research to obtain and investigate evidence on the subject, (p. 668).^
Podmore, in 1894:
The possibility of the transference of ideas and sensations must be held to be proved by the experiments recorded. That proof can be impugned only on the ground that the precautions taken against communication between agent and percipient by normal means were insufficient, (p. 143).*^
In 1902:
For my own part, I see no reason to doubt that if the existence of thought- transference should eventually be demonstrated— and I do not claim that the demonstration is or ought to be considered complete— the explanation will be found strictly within the region of natural law. ... It must be admitted that the older evidence is far more demonstrative. Possibly, apart from two recent items — ^the experiments at Brighton conducted by Professor and Mrs. Sidgwick and the records of Mrs. Piper's trance-utterances — the question of the reality of such a faculty would hardly seem worth discussion. (Int, p. xvii).*^
And in 1910:
The evidence for thought-transference at close quarters is experimental; and the experiments have been conducted by such competent investigators as Mrs. Sidgwick, Edmund Gumey, Professor W. F. Barrett, Sir Oliver Lodge, Pierre Janet, Charles Richet, and others of like caliber. Yet, even so, it is still a claimant for scientific recognition, (p. 25).**
Constable, in 191 1:
I agree with Podmore that experimental cases constitute the strongest evi- dence we have towards proof of the fact of telepathy, and that a full considera- tion of the cases leads, practically, to proof of the fact. But I think such cases are more open to suspicion of good faith than spontaneous cases. . . . The very strength, the completeness of the evidence, may point to fraud, (p. 22i).«o
Tuckett, in 191 1 :
As regards experimental cases of telepathy, I have never yet seen any evi- dence such as will satisfy a scientific standard of truth, though some of the
*« Sidgwick, Mrs, Henry: Psychical Research. Baldwin's Diet, of PhiL and Psychol., 1902.
^^ Podmore : Apparitions and Thought-Transference, an examination of the evidence for Telepathy. London, 1894.
^> Podmore : Modem Spiritualism, a history and a criticism. New York, 1902.
*• Podmore: The Newer Spiritualism. London, 1910.
»<> Constable, F. C: Personality and Telepathy. Londcxi, 191 1.
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resolts are distinctly striking. Yet in experiments carried out for this purpose such a proof should be possible, (p. 127)*^
N. W. Thomas, in 1905, concerning his own experiments, said:
The results of the card experiments ... are hardly sufficiently decisive for it to be possible to base any conclusion on them. (p. 175). *>
And concerning the status of the telepathic hypothesis :
If I venture to express my own convicticMi on the subject, it is that much more effort, and, in particular, much more systematic effort, is needed before we can safely assert that telepathy is a proved »» fact. (p. 176). When we have arrived at that point our task is only begun. No inquiry can lay claim to be scientific which expresses its results in general terms when it can give them in precise terms. . . . Psychical Research must ... be made a question of statistics if further conclusions are to be based on the results, (pp. 176-7).
Perhaps it may never be possible to formulate a telepathic law in terms like those of the law of gravitation, or to devise such experimental conditions as will enable the student of trance mediums to say with confidence that his results can- not be explained by telepathy. But, until the effort has been made, no investiga- tion into trance mediumship has the data which can alone enable it to formulate reliable conclusions, (pp. 179-80) .»*
Bramwell, who was a member of a committee of the Society for Psychical Research devoted mainly to telepathic experiments, in 1906, wrote :
During the last twenty years I have searched for evidence of telepathy, and also taken part in the experiments of other observers ; the results, however, have invariably been negative, (p. 136).
[Referring to the experiments made by eminent men:] Altho their experi- ments were carefully conducted, it is doubtful whether all possible sources of error were excluded; and I am unable to accept them as conclusive, (p. 143).
After many years* hypnotic work, and frequent opportunities of investigat- ing the experiments of others, I have seen nothing, absolutely nothing, which might be fairly considered as affording even the slightest evidence for the existence of telepathy, or any of the so-called "occult" phenomena, (p. 142).
Despite all this it would be unphilosophic to deny the possibility of telepathy, (p. I43).»»
Moll, who witnessed some of the experiments conducted by Mrs.
•iTuckett, Ivor LI.: The Evidence for the Supernatural, a critical study made with ''uncommon sense." London, 191 1.
"Thomas, Northcote W.: Thought Transference. London, 1905.
»• Proved, the author means, by direct experiment.
»* Thomas, Northcote W.: Thought Transference. London, 1905.
"Bramwell, J. Milne: Hypnotism, its history, practice and theory. London, 1906.
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Sidgwick at Brighton, a series already mentioned as noteworthy, in 1909, said:
The experiments were not conclusive. Also the experiments made by the other persons I have mentioned do not stand serious criticism. My own experi- ments, especially those I made some years ago in conjunction with Max Dessoir, only gave negative results when the necessary precautions were taken. Still, I agree with Loewenfeld that we cannot deny the possibility of there being such a thing as telepathy, or at least the possibility of there being ways of influencing others about which we know nothing in the present day. But up to the present [1909, 4th ed.] no proof of this has been forthcoming, (p. 515).
As I have already mentioned, we need not attach much importance to the fact that a few savants uphold the reality of occultistic phenomena. I myself formerly attached a certain amount of importance to this fact. But since I have observed the utter helplessness of savants directly they enter on methods of investigation with which they are not thoroughly acquainted, I have become ccxivinced that mediums easily lead great savants by the nose. (p. 551).
When I come to look through the vast literature of occultism, I find that I am totally unable to discover even one single series of experiments that carries with it a convincing proof of the reality of occultistic phenomena; nothing but casual observations of unchecked experiments. There was a time when some of the telepathic experiments carried out in England— more especially those made by Guthrie and Birchall— appeared to me, relatively speaking, free from error. Never- theless, when I take into consideration the way in which the reports are drawn up, I am compelled to admit that those experiments are not convincing, (p. 552).**
Simon Newcomb, the American astronomer, and the first President of the American Society for Psychical Research (founded in 1884), in a statement of his impressions after an experience of fifty years with psychical phenomena, said:
Nothing has been brought out by the researches of the [English] Psychical Society and its able collaborators except what we should expect to find in the ordi- nary course of nature, (p. 139) V
Among the psychologists, Floumoy •** of Geneva and M'Dougall •• of England, accept the hypothesis. James, already quoted, holds it as a possible alternative to his suggested theory of a "cosmic conscious- ness" in the explanation of Mrs. Piper's trance phenomena.
Jastrow, a member of the council in the old American Society for
■« Moll, Albert : Hypnotism, including a study of the chief points of psycho- therapeutics and occultism. London, 1909.
•7 Newcomb, Simon: Modem occultism. Nineteenth Century and After, January 1909, 65 : 126-139.
»• Floumoy : Spiritism and Psychology, pp. 209 ff.
••M'Dougall, William: Body and Mind, London, 1913. p. 349-
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Psychical Research, and now for many years in charge of the Depart- ment of Psychology at the University of Wisconsin, also quoted above, in 1900, said:
I regard the acceptance of telepathy as an established phenomenon, as abso- lutely unwarranted and most unfortunate, (p. 457) .•*
G. Stanley Hall, one of the leading spirits in the founding of the old American Society for Psychical Research (1884), ^uid for some time a vice-president and a member of the council, founder of the first laboratory in America for experimental psychology, at Johns Hopkins University, and now for many years the president of Clark University, was most sympathetic with the aims and purposes of the English S. P. R. at the time of its foimding and has followed its work with keen at- tention. He said, in 1887:
We have spent much time and labor in repeating with many subjects nearly all the experiments of the English Society, only to find in very many cases an un- accountable proportion of error.«i
In 1895:
The writer has diligently read the experiments of the Proceedings, and can honestly say that there is not one in which the conditions as reported seem to him satisfactory. . . . Give us one little fact, ever so little, that we can freely test and reproduce once a year in our laboratory. We will cross seas to see it, will acknowledge our mistaken skepticism, and confess telepathy, and turn the research of one laboratory at least in a new direction.**
And in 1910:
Even telepathy seems to me a striking case of the subjection of the intellect by the will-to-believe. . . . Here I have for years had a standard series of tests often tried on believers in telepathy and clairvoyance, but never with a glinuner of success. Only when conditions can be so controlled that, e, g., a teacher can an- nounce beforehand that, on such a day, hour, and place he will demonstrate these things, can or will they be accepted by any sound scientific mind. (xxxi-xxxii).*»
Pfungst, the clever investigator who published the remarkable re- port of experiments made with Clever Hans, the celebrated "educated" horse, in 191 1, said:
•ojastrow: The modem occult Popular Science Monthly, 1900, voL 57, foot-note.
•1 Am. Jr, Psychology, 1887, i : 143.
•*Ibid., 1895-96.7:139.
••Tanner, Amy R: Studies m Spiritism. Introduction by G. Stanley Hall. New York, 1910.
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It may be that these truly microscopic movements also play some part in bringing about the success of some of the experiments in telepathy, so-called, (transference of thought from one person to another, ostensibly without any medi- ation of the senses known to us). In spite of the huge mass of ''experimental evidence" which has been collected, chiefly in England and in America, it appears to me that telepathy is nothing but an unproven hypothesis based upon experimental errors, (p. 108, note).**
Professor James R. Angell, head of the Department of Psychology at the University of Chicago, in 1912, said :
However, telepathy is not to be laughed out of court merely by ridicule. There is a very respectable body of evidence tending to show that, occasionally at least, such transfer of knowledge has occurred. [How it comes about is not known ; moreover,] the rank and file of scientific psychologists probably disbelieve vigor- ously in the reality of anything except occasional coincidences, such as are met with in all aspects of nature, (p. 147) •^*
And Professor Titchener, head of the Department of Psychology at Cornell University, in 1898, said:
No scientifically-minded psychologist believes in telepathy. ^
Tuckett, recognized by the leaders in psychical research as a hostile critic, recently (in 191 3) summed up the situation as follows:
All the evidence for "spirit-control," "telepathy," and "psychic force," has been obtained under conditions precluding the possibility of being certain that it is not vitiated by fallacies due to fraud, self-deception, or incompleteness of data.^^
This position is consistent with that maintained by the author in his book,*® published two years earlier, of which Jastrow in an appreciative review said :
It shows so clearly the necessity of trained judgment, and the saturation of the inquiring mind with a saving grace of logical rectitude, sustained in turn by psychological insight, for a safe conduct through the tangled thicket from which so many a traveler returns with strange tales and stranger beliefs, (p. 461).®*
•* Pfungst, Oscar: Qever Hans, the Horse of Mr. von Osten; a contribution to experimental, animal and human psychology. New York, 191 1.
•» Angell, James Roland: Chapters from Modem Psychology. New York, 1912.
•• Titchener : The feeling of being stared at Science, 1898, 8 : 896.
•» Tuckett: Psychical Research: The illogical position of some psychical researchers ; A rejoinder to Sir Oliver Lodge and Mr. HilL Bedrock, 1913, i : 470.
••Tuckett: The Evidence for the Supernatural: a critical study made with ''uncommon sense." London, 191 1.
••Jastrow: The Dial, 1912, 52:461-3.
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Further Experimental Work Imperative.
That the criticisms leveled at the evidence upon which the leaders of psychical research have erected the telepathic hypothesis, now ex- ploited everywhere in the explanation of psychical phenomena, have not been without eflfect upon the leaders themselves, is indicated by a per- haps unanimous agreement that the old successftd experimental results need further verification, under such conditions of experiment as will both eliminate sources of error prejudicial to the establishing of the fact of telepathy, and reveal somewhat the nature of the process, e, g., whether it follows the laws of radiant energy, or whether it is "non- material." Proof acceptable to science is desired.
Thus, Lodge is still engaged in experiments on telepathy, and the Society officially issued a recent call (February 191 5) to its members and associates for assistance:
To Members and Associates of the Society for Psychical Research : The Society for Psychical Research is anxious to try experiments of various lands, hypnotic and other, with a view to obtaining further evidence either of tel- epathy or of hyperaesthesia. ... In all experimental work quantity, as well as quality, is important, and we hope, therefore, that not only will a considerable number of subjects present themselves, but that they will be willing to continue the experiments regularly, say, once a week, for at least two or three months, should it appear that interesting results are likely to be obtained.^^
Something concerning the conditions of experimentation, and the na- ture of the results of recent experiments, is intimated in the same issue of the Journal:
In most of the experiments in telepathy that are carried on at the Rooms, it is arranged for the agent to be in one room and the percipient in another.
Though telepathic phenomena seem to occur fairly often, it is well known that they can only be experimentally demonstrated in rare cases, so that much of the time spent in such experiments is inevitably fruitless, producing merely nega- tive results. Among a number of sets of experiments, however, tried during the last two years, a considerable proportion of successful results were obtained with two experimenters, (pp. 22-3).
This return of the Society, the publications of which contain the principal evidence for telepathy, to the problem, may be accepted as pro- fessional and official recognition of urgent need for further work in this field by psychical research. And, when it is recalled that Professor Richet insisted that his favorable results in experimental thought-trans-
^0 Journal S.P.R., Feb. 1915, 17:32.
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ference needed verification;^^ and that the old American Society for Psychical Research (1884-1889) which set itself this task discontinued its eflfort, after accumulating an imposing array of negative evidence, with an appeal by the Council for further cooperation, this trend in psy- chical research appears inevitable.
It is true that from the beginning certain leaders urged repeated experimental investigation of telepathy. Myers, in 1884, said:
It is an obvious fact, but it is nevertheless a fact which we must repeat as often as possible, that in no way can psychical research be better aided than by constant and varied experiments on thought-transference in every form. (p. 2i7)J>
Gume/s statement, made in the same year, has just been quoted in a foot-note.
In the discussion which followed F. W. H. Myers's report on the more recent English experiments on thought-transference, before the International Congress of Experimental Psychology at Paris, (August ID, 1890), Professor Richet said that he knew well of those experiments and had himself carried out a great number of a similar kind, reaching similar results; and (as reported by Dr. A. T. Myers) that
Such experiments should be repeated widely and with the greatest care, for if the proof of thought-transference to which they led could be established, with- out doubt it would be one of the greatest discoveries of our time. (p. 182) .^'
And Professor Sidgwick "entirely agreed in the view [expressed by Professor Richet] that more experiments were urgently required." ^"^ Balfour Stewart, in his Presidential Address before the Society, in 1885, said:
^^Gumey, in his review of Richefs work (Proceedings S.P,R,, 2:242) pointed out that Richet was in error in interpreting his result as the degree of probability of the existence of a "Suggestion Mentale," instead of the "most prob- able measure*' of the influence of the faculty ♦/ it exists ; and that a repetition of Richet's experiments would yield "a valuable contribution." And on another page he said:
"He [Richet] insists that the experiments must be repeated; and the im- portance of this cannot be too strongly urged." (p. 257).
^* Myers, F. W. H.: On a telepathic explanation of some so-called spiritual- istic phenomena. Proceedings S.P.R., 1884, 2:217-237.
^»A. T. Myers: International Congress of Experimental Psychology. Pro- ceedings S.P.R., 1890, 6:171-182; Cf., Congr^s International de Psychologic Physiologique, Premiere Session, Paris, 1890, Comte Rendu, p. 153.
^9a Proceedings S.P,R„ 1889, 6:182.
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FURTHER EXPERIMENTAL WORK IMPERATIVE 25
To my mind the evidence already adduced is such as to render highly prob- able the occasional presence amongst us of something which we call thought- transference or more generally telepathy; but it is surely our duty as a Society to continue to accumulate evidence until the existence of such a power cannot be controverted, (p. 66).^*
That the large amount of evidence that was accumulated during the half-dozen years following these appeals has not proven conclusive has already been shown in the opinions quoted above. And during the more recent years equally urgent appeals for further investigation have been made.
Podmore, in 1894, wrote:
The first stage of our inquiry is not yet complete. It would be futile for us to debate what manner of new agency we propose to believe in until it is generally admitted by competent persons that the facts are not to be attributed to such rec- ognized, if insufficiently familiar, causes as illusion, misrepresentation, and the subconscious quickening of normal faculties. More and varied experiments are wanted, (p. 394).^*
James, in his presidential address to the English Society, in 1896, said:
We have published records of experiments on at least thirty subjects, roughly speaking, and many of these were strikingly successful. But their types are het- erogeneous; in some cases the conditions were not faultless; in others the ob- servations were not prolonged; and, generally speaking, we must all share in a regret that the evidence, since it has reached the point it has reached, should not grow more voluminous still.^«
In the Journal for January 1900, under the title of "Premature Generalizations about Telepathy," the precautions necessary to be taken in experiments in telepathy are discussed, and the author continues :
It is true that the necessity for all these precautions was soon discovered by some of the earliest systematic workers of our Society (as may be seen by refer- ence to the accounts of their experiments published in the early numbers of the Proceedings) ; but there is no doubt that the only way of advancing the subject further is to carry out many more experiments under the same stringent condi- tions as there described, or with any further precautions that experience might suggest. Accounts of such experiments would be most gladly received by the Editor, (p. 170.)"
^* Stewart, Balfour: President's address. Proceedings S.P.R., 1885, 3:^-^- T* Podmore : Apparitions and Thought-Transference. London, 1894. '•James: The address of the president. Proceedings S,P,R., 1896-97,12:4. ^^ Journal S,P,R., Jan. 1900, 9:169-176.
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26 THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
Lodge, in 1909, wrote:
Why investigate that of which we are sure? Why conduct experiments in hypnotism or in telepathy? Why seek to confirm that of which we already have convicticMi? . . . The business of Science is not belief but investigation. Belief is both the prelude to and the outcome of knowledge. If a fact or a theory has had a prima facie case made out for it, subsequent investigation is necessary to exam- ine and extend it. (p. 24).^*
And in 1913:
If, however, direct first-hand laboratory experience of the rudimentary stages of such a faculty is wanted— as it ought to be — ^it must be looked and waited for, and experiments must be tried from time to time, as in any other branch of sci- ence. ... I have now an apparatus set up for examining whether traces of the faculty exist widespread in normal people ; and I shall make report to the Society for Psychical Research in due course.^*
Bergson, in his presidential address of 1914, presupposed continued investigation when he said:
If telepathy is real, it is natural, and . . . whenever the day comes that we know its conditions, it will no more be necessary to wait for a veridical hallucina- tion in order to obtain a telepathic effect than it is necessary for us now, if we wish to see an electric spark, to wait until the sky gives us a display during a thunderstorm, (p. 160) .^
Thomas, in 1905, wrote:
In order to justify its existence as a body whose object it is to approach the study of these questions scientifically, the Society for Psychical Research must endeavor to supply these data and again take up the question of thought-transfer- ence. That other subjects attract a greater share of popular interest is dearly no reason for dropping the inquiry. Still less is absence of success, which appears to have prevented the publication of the trials between i9g2 and 1901, a reason for discontinuing them. For it is dear that the smaller the measure of success under rigid conditions, the more probable is it that the conditions in earlier and more successful trials were lacking in some essential particular, (pp. 179-180) .'i
Tuckett, in 191 1, while admitting "the a priori possibility of telep- athy," maintains, in the face of results so far published, an attitude of skepticism :
^» Lodge: The Survival of Man, a study in unrecognized human faculty. New York, 1909.
»• Lodge: Telepathy as a fact of experience. Bedrock, 1913. 2:57 ff.
••Bergson, Henri: Presidential address (before the S. P. R.), delivered May 2S, 1913. Proceedings S.P.R., 1914, 27:157-175.
>^ Thomas, Northcote W.: Thought Transference. London, 1905.
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FURTHER EXPERIMENTAL WORK IMPERATIVE 27
This attitude, however, does not prevent my hoping that farther experiments in telepathy will be carried out by researchers trained in experimental psychology, for there is great need of such to throw adequate light on the question, which till then we must "leave in a decent obscurity." (pp. 307-8) .•*
And in 1912 he charges that the savants who have accepted the results of their investigations as proof of the fact of telepathy were satisfied with evidence that is not capable of verification (p. 182), and that they were inadequately equipped for such work:
They start on psychical research without the appropriate preliminary train- ing which ought strictly to include knowledge of the methods of experimental psychology, of conjuring tricks, and of the vagaries of human nature such as is sometimes given by a medical career, (pp. 182 ff.).
The will to believe has made them ready to accept evidence obtained under conditions which they would recognize to be unsound if they had been trained in experimental psychology, (p. 204) .•«
Thus is the paramount issue in psychical research thrown by a keen and cautious critic into the laboratory of experimental psychology, and even a skeptical psychologist may be quoted in agreement with that as- signment :
Scripture, in 1898, after discussing certain subtile psychological processes, said:
For thought-transference, therefore, all that is required is to find a subject who has an abnormally sharp ear, and, for your part, to think very intently on the word you wish transferred. It is not necessary that there shall be any intentional conununication ; if the investigators are sufficiently untrained in scientific psycho- logical experimenting, and are inclined to attribute results to occult powers rather than to their own incapacity, the proofs of thought-transference inevitably follow, (pp. 259-260) .M
And after laying down necessary precautions in conducting an experi- ment:
I have, I hope, said enough to make clear what an experiment is and what it is not. Such an explanation seems necessary at a time when so many really educated persons have put their faith in the results and deductions by the methods of psychical research. It is a priori impossible for an untrained man to make scientific experiments, and it is to be deeply regretted that persons of distinction
^'Tuckett, Ivor LI.: The Evidence for the Supernatural: a critical study made with ''uncommon sense." London, 1911.
•• Tuckctt, Ivor LL : Psychical researchers and the will to believe. Bedrock, 1912, 1 : 180-204.
•* Scripture, E. W. : The New Psychology. London, 1898.
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28 THOUGHT-TRANSFER£NCE
in Other lines should undertake problems that require all the skill of a long-trained worker in the psychological laboratory.
The objectionable feature of psychical research does not lie in its subject of investigation. . . . The objections to psychical research lie in its unscientific meth- ods of experimentation and in the air of occultism in which the whole is envel- oped. If the investigators were trained in the psychological laboratory, we might expect interesting discoveries in regard to mind, while at the same time the re- pellent mysticism would disappear along with odic force, animal magnetism, thought-transference, and other ghosts, (pp. 68-9).^
This intimation of the reception the problem would meet in the usual psychological laboratory might be supplemented by a quotation from another psychologist :
Jastrow, who says:
I must not fail to point out, however, that experiments in thought-transfer- ence have one important, and that a logical, advantage over observations of coin- cidences; this is the possibility which they present of quite accurately allowing for the effect of chance, (p. 97).
. . . While I incline to the belief that the hypothesis of telepathy is, as usu- ally advanced and in essence, an illegitimate one, I still regard it as possible that in the future some modification of this hypothesis may be found, which will bring it within the scope of a liberal conception of the scientific (p. loi).^
As a matter of fact, however, the psychological laboratories in some universities *• have proved hospitable to the investigation of telepathy by their conduct of systematic experiments on it, and the press *^ an- notmces that in the Harvard laboratory, where arrangements have been made for psychical research, testing for "telepathic sensitiveness" in people in general is in progress. It may yet be possible to carry out the program recently suggested by The Hermit of Prague.®® After noting that the integrity of the subjects in the older investigations has not al- ways been found to be reliable, and that for the purpose "of convincing the world that the truth about telepathy has already been discovered, the recorded experiments of the Society for Psychical Research are al- most without value" (p. 431), he recommends the appointment of a conmiission to induce experimental psychologists, who are best equipped to discover telepathy, to take up the investigation in laboratories all over the world. Whenever one finds success, let him pass on the "sensitive" from one laboratory to another, until it is agreed that fraud and error are eliminated and telepathy is established as either a fact or a delusion.
»» Jastrow, Jos.: Fact and Fable in Psychology. Boston, 1900. »• Notably in Clark and Cornell. ^^The Unpopular Review, Jan.-Mch. 1917, 7:210.
••The Hermit of Prague: Materialism and telepathy. Bedrock, 1914, 3:423-434.
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EXPERIMENTS ON THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
Since 1882, when organized investigation of telepathy began, prom- inent investigators and students of psychical phenomena have suggested that this super-normal process is a common faculty shared by all men.
F. W. H. Myers, 1884:
If we find telepathy in mesmeric and spontaneous trance, we may infer that it is not inseparably linked with the ordinary stream of normal consciousness. If it appears as an element of consciousness or quasi-consciousness of abnormal states, which themselves form the mere lacunae in the main life-memory, it may be surmised to exist beneath the threshold of consciousness in normal states also, (p. 220) .»•
Charles Richet, 1884:
La suggestion mentale est Tinfluence que la pens^ d'un individu exerce dans un sens d6termin6, sans ph^nom^e ext^rieur appreciable i nos sens, sur la pen- s^ d'un individu voisin. (p. 615).
De ces chiffres, de ces experiences peuvent, je crois, se d^duire, en toute rigueur, cette conclusion: Chez des personnes adultes, en bonne sant^, non h3mo- tis^es, ni hynotisables, il est possible que la suggestion mentale se fasse sentir. Cette suggestion mentale est meme, dans une certaine mesure, probable ; mais avec un degr6 de probability qui ne d^passe gu^re 1/16 (i/io?). (p. 632) .•«
Edmund Gumey, in 1886:
If it [telepathy] exists, we have no reason to expect it to be extremely un- common; on the contrary, we should rather expect to find an appreciable degree of it tolerably widely diflfused.*<»«
Bergson, 1913:
If telepathy is a real fact, it is a fact that is capable of being repeated indefi- nitely. I go further: if telepathy is a real fact, it is very possible that it is oper- ating at every moment and everywhere, but with too little intensity to be noticed, or else it is operating in the presence of obstacles which neutralize the effect at the same moment that it manifests itself, (p. 160).*^
«» Myers, F. W. H. : On a telepathic explanation of some so-called spiritual- istic phenomena. Proceedings S,P.R,, 1884, 2:217-237.
•0 Richet, Charles: La suggestion mentale et le calcul des probabilit^s. Re- vue Philosophique, Paris, 1884, 18:609-674.
•«• Phantasms of the Living, vol. I, pp. 84-5.
•* Bergson, Henri: Presidential address (before the S. P.R.), delivered May j8, 1913. Proceedings S. P. R., 1914* 27 : I57-I75.
39
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30
THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
Consequently, they have frequently urged, as the reader has perhaps noted in the quotations some pages above, continued experimentation with normal subjects. For example, Sir Oliver Lodge, in 1909, wrote:
Another thing on which I should value experiments is the detection of slight traces of telepathic power in quite normal persons — in the average man for in- stance, or, rather more likely perhaps, in the average child. The power of receiv- ing telepathic impressions may be a rare faculty existing only in a few individuals, and in them fully developed; but it is equally possible, and, if one may say so, more likely, that what we see in them is but an intensification of a power which exists in every one as a germ or nucleus. If such should be the fact, it behooves us to know it ; and its recognition would do more to spread a general belief in the fact of telepathy — z belief by no means as yet universally or even widely spread — than almost anything else. (pp. 32-3).**
The investigations included in Part I were designed primarily to put this hypothesis to further test. Other, subsidiary, aims were met through the detail of method employed, and will be found stated in the introductory paragraphs to each division. The following table shows the number of reagents (percipients) employed, the nature of the re- agent, the material guessed at, and the number of experiments :
|
Division |
Number of Reagents |
Nature of Reagents |
Material guessed at Number of Experiments |
|
I |
I |
Normal |
Lotto-Block Numbers 1000 |
|
II |
100 5 IS |
« "Psychic" |
Playing Cards loooo " (Corneal reflection) 500 1000 |
|
III |
24 145 |
Normal |
"Staring" 2400 |
|
Totals |
14900 |
** Lodge, Oliver : The Survival of Man, a study in unrecognized human fac- ulty. New York, igop.
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GUESSING OF LOTTO-BLOCK NUMBERS 31
I. GUESSING OF LOTTO-BLOCK NUMBERS."
Introduction.
^ Quotations from authoritative sources have akeady been offered the reader for the purpose of acquainting him with the present unsettled Status of the telepathic hypothesis, but no effort has been made to place before him the evidence upon which to exercise his own judgment.
It will be recalled that experimental evidence in favor of the hy- pothesis is regarded as imposing but not readily acceptable. Two rea- j sons for caution may be mentioned : ( i ) The hypothesis not being con- / sistent with a psychological law which we may call ''the principle of the sensorial gateway," must be supported by evidence sufficiently over- whelming to controvert that law in order to become acceptable; (2) • Trustworthy negative results already published are equally imposing, i with respect, at least, to the question of the general distribution of the \ telepathic function. ^
The reader may get a fairly accurate idea of the present situation from the following series of researches and their resultant criticisms :
(i) Extensive experimentation** conducted by Mrs. Henry Sidg- wick upon Lotto-Block guessing by hypnotized subjects, yielded results favorable for thought-transference. If the results of good and bad days are combined and the two digits of each number counted as separate numbers, (as in Table VII, p. 168), the Right cases are 30% of the total 1356 guesses, as against a probability of about 11% ; but if the re- sults of good days are considered separately, for two reagents (P. and T.) we get •• 27% Right cases on the two-place numbers out of 374 ex- periments, as against the probability of 1.23%. The impressions seemed to come in visual form, yet the sense of sight could not have been oper- ative. In a discussion of the possible contribution of the senses, all seemed to be ruled out; the least improbable, in case any could have been active, was said to be that of hearing, made effective through the
** Conducted during the year 1912-13.
^ Sidgwick, Professor and Mrs., and Smith, G. A. : Experiments in thought- transference. Proceedings S, P. R,, 1889-90, 6 : 12^-170.
Sidgwick, Mrs. Henry, and Johnson, Miss Alice: Experiments in thought- transference. Proceedings S.P.R,, 1892, 8:536-596.
•• From Tables I and II, op. ctt, pp. 146, 150.
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32 THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
unconscious whispering on the part of the agent; but tables failed to show this sense operative, since there was no heaping up of errors ac- cording to the similarity of sounds of the digits.
(2) Hansen and Lehmann,** taking the cue of auditory communica- tion, conducted a similar investigation on Lotto-Block guessing, chang- ing the conditions of experimentation to test its efficacy; large parabolic reflectors which augmented the intensity of the sound fourteen times, were set up with axes coinciding and foci a meter apart; the agent sat facing his reflector, his mouth at its focus, and permitted himself to rep- resent the number to himself in inner speech in a way which he calls in- voluntary whispering (imwillkurliches Fliistem) ; to a bystander neither sound nor movement of the closed mouth and lips was observable. The percipient, in the normal state and sitting with his ear at the focus of his reflector, was influenced in his guessing so that in 86 and 80 experi- ments in which the chances were 1:1.2, 34% and 32% respectively of the guesses wer/» correct ; and, when the digits were combined, the prob- ability being about 11%, there were 54% Right cases in the 1000 guesses. They compared the errors in this series with those in the series of guesses upon two-place numbers presented visually by a tachistoscope so quickly as to remain indefinite, together with those of the Sidgwick experimentation, and concluded that the results of the latter were un- doubtedly owing to involuntary whispering. The h)rperaesthesia of the hypnotized reagents and their favorable positions for sound perception were conditions said to be accountable for success even when the agent and percipient sat in different rooms.
(3) Critique of the latter by Professor Sidgwick*^ and by Profes- sor James." The former pointed out that (a) by trial with a reagent practiced in perceiving faint whispers, and by watching the former agent for indications of movement of the vocal organs in the submaxil- lary regions, no involuntary whispering could be detected, (ft) Owing to faulty methods of comparison of errors, Hansen and Lehmann's con- clusions are "quite inconclusive," since the agreements of the most fre-
•« Hansen, F. C. C, und Lehmann, Alfred: Ueber unwillkurliches Flustcm. Philosophische Studien, 1895, 11:471-530.
•' Sidgwick, Professor Henry : Involuntary whispering considered in relation to experiments in thought-transference. Proceedings S.P.R,, 1896-97, 12:298-315.
••James, Wm.: Review of Hansen arid Lehmann's work, in Psychological Review, 1896, 3:98-100; see also, review of Sidgwick's critique, Psychological Re- view, 4:654-5, and Lehmann and Hansen on the telepathic problem. Science, 1898, 8:956.
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Google j
GUESSING OF LOTTO-BLOCK NUMBERS 33
quent substitutions between the results of the Sidgwick experimentation and the results of a series in which the agent and percipient were lo- cated in different houses, in which the correct guesses could be regarded as governed by pure chance, and in which the whispering could not be effective, are as close as between the former and the results of the Han- sen and Lehmann experimentation, (c) Involuntary whispering could not have been instrumental to the success of the experiments in which the agent and percipient were separated by a closed door and a consid- erable space (lo to 20 feet).
James agrees with Sidgwick that Hansen and Lehmann did not prove their point; he reports that he made up looo guesses on two- place numbers, under the condition of whispering with lips closed, and found that substitutions do not agree more closely with the Sidgwick results than with chance. He notes that Parish •• also agrees with Sidg- wick.
(4) Lehmann wrote in reply to James's inquiry asking him what he himself thought of his conclusions in the light of the criticisms in ques- tion:
"Your own as well as Professor Sidgwick's experiments and com- putations prove beyond a doubt that play of chance had thrown into my hands a result distinctly too favorable to my theory; and that the said theory is consequently not yet established (bewiesen)."*^
(5) Lehmann, in a recently revised work,**^^ still holds to his "Un- willkurliches Flustem" hypothesis as being sufficiently proved to hold for the Sidgwick results; but grants Professor Sidgwick, for the suc- cess of the experiments in which agent and percipient were separated by a door and a considerable distance, another factor: "Andere Um- stande fiir eine solche Telepathie sprechen, deren Natur noch ganzlich unbekannt ist" ; namely, subliminal impressions, etc., which he discusses in Kapitel 34 under the title of "Das Eingreifen des Unbewussten in das Bewusstsein." (p. 512).
The results favorable for thought-transference still stand unex- plained. It is true that there have been from the earliest researches
••Parish, Edmund: Halludnations and Illusions. New York: Scribners, 1897, p. 3^0, note.
^•o James: Messrs. Lehmann and Hansen on telepathy. Science, 1899^
9:654-5.
^•^ Lehmann, Alfred : Auberglaube und Zauberei. 2te Aul, Stuttgart : Enke, 1908, p. 464.
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34 THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
critics ^^* who have not wearied in pointing out errors of experimenta- tion and observation to which the favorable results are probably due. But in spite of illtuninating knowledge of unconscious muscular activity, subliminal impressions, suggestion, mental habits, variability of experi- mental chance, etc., there has been no thorough-going research by psy- chologists, besides the abortive one by Hansen and Lehmann, to deter- mine the conditions and processes responsible for results favorable for thought-transference without contact.
It would be gratifying to know whether the percipient is successful only when in an abnormal condition as in hypnosis or trance, or has some advantage for subliminal impression from the reflection of the cornea or vibrations of the tympanic membrane (if such occur with strong auditory imagery or with osseous disturbance accompanying kin- aesthetic imagery— one of which is suggested by the finding of Ab- bott's ^^ investigation of the phenomena of a certain trumpet medium).
Richet at one time was quite confident that the equivalent of thought transference, "suggestion mentale," was to a small degree (3% to 10%) a common human capacity. But Preyer*^ showed that the deviations from probability upon which Richet had based his conclusions are not only equalled but surpassed by experimental chance (in lottery drawings in series of equal length to that of Richet). And the 11,130 guesses upon digits, by 27 different percipients, collected by the Conunit- tee on Thought-Transference, of the American S. P. R., indicated by their 10.17% of Right cases, as against the 10% of theoretical probabil- ity, that Richet was probably in error. Jamcs,*^ in his presidential address before the S. P. R., said of Richet's supposition : '*! am inclined to think [it is] not very well substantiated. Thought-transference may involve a critical point, as physicists call it, which is passed only when certain psychic conditions are realized, and otherwise not reached at all — just as a big conflagration will break out at a certain temperature, below which no conflagration whatever, big or little, can occur." (p. 4). And Lehmann, in his chapter "Das Gedankenlesen und die Gedankenuber- tragung," says: "Aus spater zu erortenden Grunden ist aller Wahr-
io« Among others, Prcyer, Baird, Braid, Carpenter, Morselli, Vaschide, Marbc, Jastrow, Hall, Tanner. ,
lo* Abbott, David P. : The history of a strange case. Open Court, June 1908.
io4preycr, W.: Die Erklarung des Gedankenlesens. Leipzig: Grieben, 1886, p. 70.
*•• James: Address by the president. Proceedings S.P,R., 1896-97,, 12:2-10.
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GUESSING OF LOTTO-BLOCK NUMBERS 35
scheinlichkeit nach cine Mitwirkung der telepathischen Krafte indes nur dann anzunehmen, wenn der Empfanger hypnotisiert ist oder sich in einem ahnlichen Zustande bcfindct." (p. 464)-*^
The object of this division of our experimentation is to get a "norm" (or standard measure) for normal persons, with which we may compare results from "sensitives." The subjective conditions of guess- ing are scrutinized, and by carrying on "control" experiments we hope to establish an inductive probability with which we may compare our results as well as with the theoretical probability.
Method.
Our blocks are of light hard wood, 15 nun. in diameter, 8 mm. high, and the black Arabic numerals are printed in heavily shaded Ro- man type, 8 nmi. high. As in the former researches, the two-place num- bers up to and including 90 were used.
The reagent (percipient) sat in an arm-leaf chair with his back to the experimenter (agent), and after each experiment (each guess of a double number) noted introspections in a tabulated form under the fol- lowing headings: (a) Was the mind in a thoroughly receptive mood? (b) Grade of certainty of judgment, or vividness of imagery, (c) Kind of impression (visual, auditory, or Idnaesthetic), (d) Temporal course of the impression (sudden or slow in appearance, early in the period or late, persistent, recurring), (e) Spatial attributes (where apparently lo- cated). The grading was to be A, B, C, D, m descending order; and in case certainty of judgment diflfered from vividness of imagery, two grades were to be given.
The period during which the reagent was to seek an impression of some number from 10 to 90, was at first 20 seconds, but upon the re- quest of the reagent was later reduced to 15 seconds. The reagent dur- ing this period shaded his closed eyes with his hand, rested his head comfortably with elbow upon the arm of the chair, and sought a quiet, receptive state of mind. He knew that the block might not be looked at by the experimenter until after his guess was recorded by himself, and that if its number was held in imagery the latter might be visual, kinaesthetic, or auditory, or combinations of these.
The experimenter sat facing the reagent's back, drew from a bag a Lotto-Block, and, if the numbered side came up, made ready to hold it
^••Lehinann: Aberglaube tind Zauberei, pp. 458-465.
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36 THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
in some kind of vivid imagery, shook the dice-box, tapped with his pen- cil once to inform the reagent that the period of impression began, then held or did not hold imagery of the number; and after 15 seconds tapped twice to close the period of impression. When the numbered side of the block came up, imagery was held according to the face cast by the die, as follows: (i) Visual impression; (2) Kinaesthetic image (care being taken to avoid an auditory accompaniment, and also any movements of pronunciation great enough to be felt; (3) Auditory im- agery (stripped of its usual kinaesthetic accompaniment) ; (4) Com- bination of I and 2; (s) of i and 3; (6) of 2 and 3. In order that there would be no confusion, the experimenter kept before him a card with the kinds of impressions, or imagery, tabulated by number, upon it. In case the blank side of the block was drawn, the dice-box was shaken, and the experiment progressed in every way like its alternate; except that the experimenter refrained from thinking of numbers (by musing upon an ocean scene). After the reagent had recorded his guess and while he was writing his introspections, the experimenter recorded the block-number, and the face of the die, and indicated whether the num- ber was imaged. Accompanying the imaging of the number was a de- termined set of the will that it be communicated to the reagent. The distance between experimenter and reagent was changed every 20 ex- periments, irregularly over the following distances in meters: i, 2, 3, 4.6, 6, 10.
The reagent was given all the time he wished to note his introspec- tions, which at the beginning was up to about 10 minutes ; after he be- came more familiar with the procedure the time settled down to half a minute, and the rate of the experiments became one a minute. A sitting was never continued after the fatigue point had been reached ; the num- ber of experiments ranged from 20 to 50, but was rarely over 30 during the first half of the experimentation. The sittings took place in the first hour of the afternoon, on alternate days, three times a week. The ex- periments numbered 1000. The conditions of quiet and regularity of procedure usual in the psychological laboratory obtained. Neither ex- perimenter nor reagent knew how the results were coming out until the whole ten series had been concluded.
The reagent, Harold A. Hughes, registering from Massachusetts, was a major in the Department of Psychology, and was doing advanced laboratory work. He is versatile and responsive by nature. His replies to a questionnaire record that (a) He sometimes has the feeling of be-
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GUESSING OF LOTTO-BLOCK NUMBERS 37
ing Stared at, with the conviction that the feeling can be relied upon; (ft) He has not had premonitions of important events, but knows per- sons who have had; (c) He has mental pictures of coming or distant events, and (d) he sees pictures in water-glasses, etc.; (e) He has found that he can cause a person in front of him in an audience to turn around by "willing^' it; (/) He has never been hypnotized, (a) and (e) testify to his belief in his own power in a phase of telepathic ex- perience, and (ft) supports (a) and (e) in indicating his belief in tele- pathic phenomena; (c) and (d) indicate probably nothing more than strong visual imagery. This student seemed, therefore, a good reagent for our purpose. Nothing was wanting in the seriousness and faithful- ness with which he carried forth his end of the research.
The favorable state of mind of the reagent during the interval given for impression can be seen from his written description : "When the signal came I made my mind a blank and just waited for a number to be impressed upon me. ... I did not consider diflferent alternatives, nor did I try to *guess' some number. I just let some number enter my mind — ^without trying in the least to make it any certain number."
The experimenter (the writer) took his advanced work in science in psychology, from which department he has received the higher de- grees, and has had considerable experience in the laboratory, both as reagent and as experimenter. While at a small college he made some experiments, during February 1891, in hypnotism (then known to him as Mesmerism), and the records of his diary support his memory to the effect that experiments in telepathy and clairvoyance were successful. He had ten subjects, some of whom were hypnotized a half-dozen times. But that was before he had received any training in science, and he realizes that h^ was competent neither as an experimenter nor as an ob- server, and he is therefore somewhat agnostic as to the results of his experimentation; yet, when he re-reads his notes, he cannot avoid the conviction that here is a worthy field for scientific investigation. His former success has inspired him with confidence in his power to main- tain the psychical conditions of an agent, favorable for thought-trans- ference ; it was in this spirit that he performed his part of the present experimentation.
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38
THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
Results.
The numerical results were tabulated under the headings of the "Number Not Imaged" and "Number Imaged'' experiments. It is to be noted therefore that the averages of the "Number Imaged" experi- ments may be compared with those of an Experimental Probability as well as with the Theoretical Probability in order to determine whether any cause besides chance has been operative toward Right cases.
The complete and partial successes for each of the lo Series, of 100 experiments each, are tabulated in Tables I and II :
TABLE L NUMBER NOT IMAGED.
|
Series |
Whole No. |
Ten's |
Unit's |
Ten's for Unit's for Trans- |
Total |
||
|
of 100 |
Correct |
Correct |
Correct |
Unit's |
Ten's |
posed |
N. I. |
|
I. |
I |
8 |
9 |
0 |
2 |
0 |
49 |
|
2. |
I |
4 |
I |
2 |
I |
SI |
|
|
J. |
I |
4 |
5 |
I |
57 |
||
|
4' |
0 |
5 |
4 |
I |
47 |
||
|
i. |
0 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
48 |
||
|
6. |
0 |
3 |
5 |
I |
54 |
||
|
7. |
o |
2 |
2 |
0 |
41 |
||
|
B. |
0 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
47 |
||
|
p. |
2 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
51 |
||
|
10. |
2 |
6 |
6 |
0 |
51 |
||
|
Totals |
"6 |
SO |
40 |
37 |
40 |
4 |
5<» |
|
TABLE IL NUMBER IMAGED. |
|||||||
|
Series |
Whole No. |
Ten's |
Unifs |
Ten's for Unit's for Trans- |
Total |
||
|
of 100 |
Correct |
Correct |
Correct |
Unifs |
Ten's |
posed |
L |
|
J. |
2 |
4 |
4 |
0 |
I |
0 |
51 |
|
2, |
0 |
5 |
8 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
49 |
|
3- |
I |
8 |
3 |
2 |
I |
43 |
|
|
4- |
I |
7 |
4 |
4 |
0 |
53 |
|
|
5. |
0 |
8 |
2 |
I |
Sa |
||
|
6. |
I |
5 |
6 |
3 |
46 |
||
|
7. |
0 |
7 |
6 |
2 |
59 |
||
|
8. |
o |
3 |
6 |
3 |
53 |
||
|
p. |
0 |
5 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
43 |
|
|
10. |
0 |
7 |
4 |
I |
6 |
0 |
49 |
Totals
59
33
30
498
Digitized by
GUESSING OF LOTTO-BLOCK NUMBERS
39
Number Imaged.
TABLE III. COMPARISON.
Unit's Ten's for Unit's for Trans- Correct Unit's Ten's posed 51 33 30 6
io.a% 6.6% 6.0% 1.23%
Whole No. Ten's Correct Correct 5 64
1.00% 12.8%
Total 498
5«
Nmnber Not Imaged. 6 56 46 37 40 4
1.18% IM% 9.1% 74% S.0% 0.8 % Probability 1^3% 12.5% 10.0% 6.9% 6.9% a8s%
The totals of the second and third columns of Table III include, of course, the totals of the preceding column, since when a whole number is correct both the ten's and the unit's digits are also correct
In the calculation of Probability, the ratios have been changed to per cents. A whole number stands one chance in 81 of being correct ; a ten's digit i :8.i, since there are but eight, each with its ten units, and the number 90; a unit's digit i :io; a ten's digit for a unit's digit, i :i4*5> since among the 81 numbers there are 25 which cannot be transposed, as, 10, 20, 30 . . ., 19, 29, 39 . . ., 11, 22, 33 .. . ., which reduces the chance of success to 56/81 of 1:10; a unit's digit for a ten's digit, also 1:14.5; for the same reason, a transposed number, 56/81 of 1:81, or 1 .117.
Tables IV and V show the distribution of the guessed upon the drawn numbers, and are comparable with the tables published by Mrs. Sidgwick and Hansen and Lehmann, except that these authors combined the guesses on the unit's and ten's digits. We have not done so for the reason that the reagent differed from those of Mrs. Sidgwick in that he got his impressions as double instead of single numbers. For the pur- pose of showing ntunber habits separation is desirable, and, as is indi- cated above, the probability ratios of the two are different.
TABLE IV. UNIT'S DIGIT. NUMBER NOT IMAGED.
Guessed
Drawn
0 /
2 S 4 5 6
7 8
9 Totals
|
0 |
J |
2 |
B |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
P |
Total |
|
5 |
4 |
8 |
10 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
48 |
|
5 |
3 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
9 |
6 |
5 |
6 |
SI |
|
4 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
47 |
|
6 |
7 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
3 |
7 |
53 |
|
8 |
3 |
7 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
3 |
6 |
5 |
9 |
58 |
|
5 |
2 |
8 |
4 |
3 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
6 |
2 |
50 |
|
5 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
4a |
|
9 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
3 |
5 |
9 |
5 |
2 |
9 |
62 |
|
2 |
3 |
10 |
5 |
I |
4 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
43 |
|
7 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
49 |
S6 45 ^ 47
46 53 57 41
502
Digitized by
40
THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
TABLE V. TEN'S DIGIT. NUMBER NOT IMAGED.
Drawn
/
2
3 4
5 6
7 8
9 Totals
|
Guessed |
||||||||
|
/ |
2 |
s |
i |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
P |
|
13 |
i8 |
17 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
0 |
|
15 |
9 |
17 |
14 |
2 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
2 |
|
13 |
II |
14 |
II |
3 |
5 |
7 |
6 |
0 |
|
2 |
8 |
14 |
10 |
8 |
12 |
8 |
2 |
2 |
|
10 |
10 |
II |
13 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
0 |
|
9 |
6 |
9 |
7 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
|
15 |
14 |
II |
10 |
9 |
3 |
4 |
I |
I |
|
8 |
12 |
6 |
7 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
O |
|
I |
0 |
I |
0 |
0 |
0 |
I |
0 |
0 |
86 88 100 78 36
40
41 26
Total
67 76 70 66 60 46 68 46 3
502
Drawn
Totals
Drawn
I 2 B 4 5 6
7 8
9 Totals
TABLE VI. UNIT'S DIGIT. NUMBER IMAGED. Guessed 0123456TS9
58 50 66 47
51
40 44 53 45
44
TABLE VII. TEN'S DIGIT. NUMBER IMAGED.
|
Guessed |
||||||||
|
/ |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
5 |
9 |
|
4 |
10 |
13 |
9 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
I |
I |
|
9 |
18 |
12 |
10 |
2 |
6 |
5 |
8 |
I |
|
9 |
10 |
12 |
12 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
0 |
|
6 |
15 |
8 |
11 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
5 |
2 |
|
10 |
12 |
9 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
3 |
I |
|
12 |
II |
10 |
7 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
I |
|
9 |
8 |
II |
13 |
7 |
5 |
8 |
4 |
2 |
|
8 |
9 |
13 |
10 |
10 |
6 |
4 |
2 |
I |
|
0 |
I |
0 |
I |
0 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
Total
|
0 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
3 |
7 |
5 |
8 |
65 |
|
/ |
4 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
9 |
7 |
8 |
3 |
3 |
13 |
63 |
|
2 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
I |
38 |
|
3 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
9 |
2 |
48 |
|
4 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
2 |
10 |
I |
5 |
5 |
4 |
47 |
|
|
5 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
I |
6 |
4 |
10 |
6 |
45 |
|
|
6 |
3 |
3 |
II |
8 |
2 |
5 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
47 |
|
|
7 |
7 |
4 |
12 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
6 |
57 |
|
|
8 |
5 |
8 |
6 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
37 |
|
|
9 |
8 |
6 |
7 |
3 |
5 |
I |
5 |
6 |
6 |
51 |
67 94 88 78 44
40
45 33
498
Total
53 71 63 61
57 57 67 63 6
498
Digitized by
GUESSING OF LOTTO-BLOCK NUMBERS 41
An examination of Tables I-III does not warrant the conclusion that the judgments of the reagent were influenced by the imagery in the mind of the experimenter ; nor do the errors in the Tables IV-VII show it, by similarity of sight or sound of the digits. But, supposing that some imknown cause counteracted a telepathic influence, and thus kept it from being shown in these particular tables, other tests are at hand. If there was a transference of thought at all, it is reasonable to suppose that successful guesses would be positively correlated with the high grades of certainty in the "Number Imaged" experiments, but not in the "Number Not Imaged" experiments; that some particular form of imagery would, for this reagent, be more efficient than the others; that some particular distance would be the more favorable ; and that in successful guesses the imagery in the mind of the reagent would con- form in kind with that in the mind of the experimenter.
If we call Right cases the experiments in which the whole number, the ten's digit, or the unit's digit, is right, the two following tables show the relationship between Right cases and Certainty of guesses.
Table VIII shows the distribution of the three grades over the "Not Imaged" and the "Imaged" experiments (B is the highest, D the lowest grade of certainty) :
TABLE VIIL
B % C % D %
Total Grades 352 557 91
R Cases, Number Not Imaged... 31 8-8% 50 9.0% 14 i54%
R Cases, Number Imaged 39 ".1% 62 11.1% 9 9.9^
Almost as many highly graded guesses (lacking but 2%) were made in the "Number Not Imaged" experiments.
Table IX shows the distribution of the highest and lowest grades over the three kinds of successes, for the "Number Not Imaged" and the "Number Imaged" experiments:
TABLE IX.
Whole Grand
Grade No. Ten's Unit's Total Total %
Number Not Imaged B 2 17 12 31 180 17.2
" D o 9 6 15 50 30.0
Number Imaged B i 26 12 39 172 22.6
" D I 4 4 9 42 2M
Digitized by
^2 THOUGHT-TRANSFEKENCE
The greater number of B's on the ten's digit successes in the "Num- ber Imaged" experiments is the only advantage the table shows; this, however, is but moderate, and is probably offset by the facts (i) that about the same proportion of JD's as of B's have correlated with suc- cesses, (2) that no advantage is shown on the unit's digit, and (3) that the grades of the few complete successes are somewhat lower in the "Number Imaged" than in the "Number Not Imaged" experiments.
The data seem to warrant the conclusion that Certainty of guesses does not correlate with Right cases.
Whether any sort of imagery was more efficient than others, may be determined by a distribution of the Right cases over the die-spots, since the latter determined the respective forms of imagery :
TABLE X.
Whole Grand
Die No. Ten's Unit's Total Total %
Number Not Imaged / . i 7 7 15 78 loa
^ ^3 7 20 7S aS.7
S 7 4 II 91 I2.I
" 4 I 9 6 16 87 184
" 5 I 7 6 14 86 16.3
" " 6 3 7 10 20 85 23.5
Number Imaged / i 9 5 15 81 18.5
" ^ 9 6 15 95 15^8
" B 8 10 18 84 214
" 4 16 8 24 8s 28.2
" 5 3 II II 35 82 30.S
" 6 I 6 6 13 71 ia3
Although the per cents show some variation, it appears to be gov- erned by chance: the 4-spot and the 5-spot seem to be more efficient, but the same might be said of the 2-spot in the "Number Not Imaged" experiments. Since the latter is obviously a chance variation, the for- mer, being but slightly larger, must be held to be probably chance vari- ations also. The imagery determined by the 4-spot and the S-spot was, respectively (Visual impression) -f- (Kinaesthetic image) and (Visual impression) -|- (Auditory image) ; since the visual impression was com- mon to both, one would expect its efficiency alone to be greater than that of the Kinaesthetic or Auditory imagery alone, and i is but inter- mediate between 2 and 3, and is lower than i, 2, and 6, in the upper part of the table; moreover, the experimenter found 5 the most difficult im- agery to hold vividly, as any one else probably will if he tries it. The
Digitized by
GUESSING OF LOTTO-BLOCK NUMBERS 43
imagery Hansen and Lehmann tried to prove accountable for the suc- cesses in Mrs. Sidgwick's research is 2, which in the table is correlated with the lowest per cent. The experimenter, being of the kinaesthetic type, and finding that imagery more easily held in a vivid form, might reasonably have expected the highest per cent on 2.
We are probably safe in concluding that no particular form of im- agery was more efficient than any other in conditioning Right cases.
Whether some particular distance was most favorable may be de- termined from the following table, which distributes the Right cases over the six distances used :
TABLE XL
Meters i 3 3 4.6 6 10
Number Not Imaged— total cases 89 34 94 71 104 no
" " " —total right cases.. 22 4 23 16 16 16
Percent 24.7 11.8 24.5 22.5 154 14.6
Number Imaged — ^total cases 91 26 86 109 96 90
" —total right cases 18 7 16 26 23 18
Per cent 19^ 26.9 18.6 23,9 24-0 20.0
But few experiments were made on the 2-meter mark, and these per cents may be disregarded. If any distance is more favorable than another it is 6 meters ; but as much advantage is shown by i meter in the "Number Not Imaged" experiments. The latter being a chance variation, the former probably is also.
We may probably safely conclude that no particular distance was the more favorable for Right cases.
Number Habits.
As has been pointed out by Mrs. Sidgwick,^^ number habits on the part of the reagent alone cannot, except by chance, augment the num- ber of Right cases; they would even resist a telepathic influence and tend to keep it from operating in the process of guessing and from be- ing shown in the numerical results. They are of interest, however, in revealing some of the subjective conditions of guessing, on the part of individual reagents.
An inspection of Tables IV- VII reveals the fact that guesses were not distributed equally on the double numbers. The totals of the re-
JOT Proaedings S. P. R., 6 :i70.
Digitized by
44
THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
agent's guesses below 50 are much greater than above 50. (See Tables V and VII). The ratios are:
Not Imaged 327 :i62 = 2.02
Imaged 352 :i43 = 246
The 30's in the "Number Not Imaged" and the 20's in the "Number Imaged" experiments were guessed the more often; while the average number of guesses per number is 6, of the forty numbers below 50
>
Plate II. — Showing Mental Habit in the Guessing of Two-place Numbers. Guesses are represented by broken lines; drawings by solid lines.
twenty-seven in the "Number Not Imaged" experiments, and twenty- one in the "Number Imaged" experiments, were guessed over 7 times; the number 37 in the former was guessed 16 times, the ntunber 32 in the latter 15 times; in the former the numbers 68 and 86, and in the latter the number 10, were not guessed at all.
Of the unit's digits, 2 and 7, in the order named, show a slight preference. Plate II shows the difference between the guessing and the drawing of the digits.
Digitized by
guessing of lotto-block numbers 45
Imagery. As was noted above, the reagent knew in what kinds of imagery the experimenter would hold the numbers. Whether it was on this ac- count or because he customarily has vivid imagery in different modes, he differed from our more naive reagents in recording three, and later four, kinds of imagery as the forms in which the number came into his mind. In the 4th 100 he distinguished Kinaesthetic- Auditory from Audi- tory, and fell oflF in Visual imagery from 20% to 6% ; the Kinaesthetic- Auditory increasing from 0% to 21%. The following table shows the change that occurred in his imagery, as well as its distribution over the various kinds.
TABLE XII. Kinds of Imagery., i Avg. of first 300. ..22% Avg. 4th-ioth loo's. . 6%
|
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
37% |
40% |
0. |
0. |
0.3% |
|
40% |
32% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
22% |
1. Visual 4. I -h 2
2. Kinaesthetic 5. 1 + 3
3. Auditory 6. 2 4- 3
Within these two periods the ratios are very uniform, which would hardly be the case unless there had been a change in the reagent's im- pressions and the latter had been pretty faithfully described. The only change due to keener analysis of his experience is the sorting out of the Kin.-A. images from the Auditory ones. The Kin.-A. imagery involves imagery of movements of pronunciation and of the sound of his own voice; the Auditory alone involved the imagery of a voice (not his own) whispering the number to him or speaking it from a position in front and to the right or from a point in the top of his head. The Vis- ual imagery pictured the figures written on a blackboard about a meter and a half in front, in white 2 inches high, or printed on small blocks the size of a dime (a ten-cent-piece), held in the experimenter's hand. Some variation from the rule was the appearance of vivid memory images ; as 20 on a $20 bill, 22 on a red background (the front of the campus electric car), or the 33 of the Hudson automobile; these, how- ever, occurred very rarely.
With respect to the time and manner of appearance of the imagery, tabulation shows that the Visual imagery usually appeared suddenly, and in the early part of the period given for the impression ; Kin. im- agery changed by the 4th 100 from about 50% of the cases coming late to 75% coming early, and it came suddenly; the Auditory changed in the 2d 100 from about 2/3 early to about 2/3 late, and it was some- times slow in forming; the Kin.-A. imagery came regularly suddenly and early.
Digitized by
46 THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
Tabulation of the imagery of the successful guesses shows that the kind of imagery in the experimenter's mind did not coincide with the kind of imagery in the reagent's mind more often in the "Number Im- aged" experiments than did the corresponding dice-numbers in the "Number Not Imaged" experiments.^ And special cases of vividness calling for extra note either fall upon experiments when the block was not looked at or do not agree in imagery with that held in the experi- menter's mind
The feeling of certainty that the impression had an objective source seemed to depend upon
1. Vividness of the imagery,
2. Early appearance,
3. Flashing out,
4. Persistence or recurrence.
This is true even of the memory images of 20, 22, etc. (It may be mentioned in passing that these special ntunbers were not guessed more often than their neighbors.)
Conclusion.
Although the conditions of our experimentation, and the attitude and training of the reagent, seemed favorable for thought-transference, the results of a thousand experiments indicate that the number of suc- cessful guesses is not beyond either experimental or theoretical prob- ability; that the feeling of certainty with which judgments are made does not correlate with Right cases ; that no particular form of the ex- perimenter's imagery was more efficient than others; that no particular distance was more favorable than another; that in the successful cases the kind of imagery in the mind of the reagent did not conform to the kind of imagery in the mind of the experimenter more often than to the corresponding die-spots in the experimental probability experiments ; that the reagent was successful in keeping his mind in such a receptive condition that impressions seemed to have an objective source; and that this feeling of certainty of the chance of a guess being right seems to depend upon the vividness and behavior of the imagery constituting the impression.
The results of these series of experiments, then, in which a reagent, in the normal state and under conditions supposedly favorable for thought-transference, made 498 guesses upon Lotto-Block numbers (from 10-90) when the number was vividly imaged by the experimenter, and
Digitized by
GUESSING OF LOTTO-BLOCK NUMBERS 47
502 guesses when the number was unknown to the experimenter, without causing in the results a significant deviation in either group of experi- ments from theoretical probability, support Professor James in his judg- ment that Professor Richet's hypothesis to the effect that thought- transference is a common capacity, to be found in any long series of guessing in the presence of some one who knows what is being guessed at, is probably wrong.
The qualitative results of these experiments, afforded by analyses of / introspections, are of psychological interest in establishing the fact that i normal persons have experiences which they refer with varying degrees of certainty to an objective source but which in reality do not depend upon it. This tendency to project subjective experience is obviously related to the psychical processes of illusion and hallucination, as an incipient function to an active one, and is to be regarded as both com- mon and normal.
Digitized by
48 THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
II. GUESSING OF PLAYING-CARDS.
SERIES I. REAGENTS NORMAL. Successful results in card-guessing by normal reagents (subjects, percipients) have been reported in not a few experiments on Thought- Transference ; notably, (i) by the Committee on Thought-Transfer- ence,^^* of the Society for Psychical Research, in England, in 1882, who reported 22 out of 248 trials correct, or 8.87%, as against the prob- ability of 1.92%; (2) by Gumey, Myers, and Podmore,^®* in 1886, who reported 4760 successes out of 17,653 trials in the guessing of suits, an excess of 347 over the most probable number, of which the probabil- ity that it was caused by chance alone was calculated by Edgeworth^^^ to be .000,000,02, or, by another method of calculation,^^^ .000,000,000,8 ; (3) by Miss B. Lindsay,^^* who reported that out of 976 trials in the guessing of six uncolored forms (figures on cards), there were made 198 successses, "the odds against obtaining that degree of success by chance being 1000 to i," or, the probability of the success by chance, as calculated by Edgeworth,"' being .002; (4) by Messrs. A. J. Shilton and G. T. Cashmore,^^* who reported that out of 505 trials in the guess- ing of red, blue, green, and yellow cards, 261 successes were made, the probability for an extra-chance cause being considered "a trillion trillions to I," or, as calculated by Edgeworth,^" -9999 [to 37 places] ; (5) by the Misses Wingfield,^^* who made 2,624 trials in the guessing of two-place numbers (10-99), the cards being chosen at random by the agent, and reported 275 successes (not including 78 cases in which the right digits were guessed in reverse order) as against the most probable ntunber of 29, the probability for extra-chance cause being "the ninth power of a trillion to i"; (6) by Richet,"^ in France, in 1888-89 and 1889-90, who
io» Proceedings S. P, R., 18812-83, i : 70 flF. *^* Phantasms of the Living, vol. I, p. 33.
110 Vide, Podmore : Apparitions and Thought-Transference, 1894, p. 27. 1" Proceedings S. P. R., 4 : 203. *** Phantasms of the Living, i : 34. "» Proceedings S. P, R., 4 : 203. ^1* Phantasms of the living, i : 34. "» Proceedings S, P. R., 4: 204. ^1* Phantasms of the Living, i : 34.
1^7 La suggestion mentale et le calcul des probability. Revue Philosophique, 1884, i8:6o9ff.
Digitized by
GUESSING OF PLAYING-CARDS 49
from II reagents got 789 right guesses on the suit out of 2927 trials, or 26.99% ^" 21s against the probability of 25%, or, if series of over 100 guesses are discarded because of the possible influence of fatigue, 510 out of 1833 trials, or 27.8% ;"• and from 782 trials, 17 right guesses on the complete card, or 2.17%, as against 1.92%; (7) by Mr. and Mrs. Brown,"® in the United States, in 1889, who in 1000 guesses on the number of the card got 21.9% right as against 10%. Negative results have been reported by the Conmiittee on Thought-Transferenc?*^ of the American Society for Psychical Research, in 1885-89, who obtained from 5500 guesses on the color of the card, by 22 reagents, 50.51% right cases, while an experimental chance series of 5150 trials yielded 50.35%, and probability is 50% ; and from 4000 guesses on the number of the card, 10.3% right cases as against a probability of 10%. Nega- tive results seem to have been encountered in considerable numbers by the (English) Society for Psychical Research also, but, unfortunately, were not considered worthy of public record.***
"Card-experiments of the above type offer special conveniences for the very extended trials which we wish to see carried out: they are easily made and rapidly recorded." **•
Cards were turned to by Richet *** because they permitted a quanti- tative calculation of results, and were used by the American Committee
11* For this result the probability has been calculated by Edgeworth to be .008 (Proceedings S.P.R., 4:202).
11* For this result Edgeworth calculates the probability -to be less than .0013. (Ibid., p. 203).
^^^ Proceedings Am. S. P. R., Series 1,1: 322-349.
"1 Idem, pp. 6 flF.
122 Vide, Quotations from the Journal S. P. R., on p. 23, and from Thomas on p. 26. Where successful results alone are regarded as interesting, the pub- lished results cannot be taken as indicative of the extent to which the telepathic capacity is shared by people in general. The situation becomes still more critical for the telepathic hypothesis when psychical-research writers are over-ready to impute improper experimental procedure to negative results, as Podmore appears to do in his reference to the experiments carried out under the direction of the American Society for Psychical Research : "But in the absence of details as to the conditions under which the experiments were made, no unfavorable inference can fairly be drawn from these results." (Apparitions and Thought-Transference, p. 27). Our inductions will be safer if all of the results of investigations which we have reason to believe have been intelligendy carried out are available for our examination.
i*« Phantasms of the Living, i : 34.
*2*For his later preference for playing-cards, vide, Proceedings S.P.R., 1889,6:66.
Digitized by
50 THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
for the same reason. The numbers of experiments from these two more authoritative sources are extensive, but further work by others, of a similar kind, was strongly urged by Richet for the purpose of sub- stantiating or subverting the results already at hand; and although many of the experiments carried out under the direction of the Ameri- can Committee were conducted by men of science, other experiments under the control customary in the modem psychological laboratory are desirable to detennine whether their negative results or Richet's slightly favorable results ^^ shall be expected at large. And playing cards pos- sess obvious advantages: as apparatus they are easily accessible; they are convenient to shuffle, cut, and draw by chance; they permit testing for the relative preference *•• of Thought-Transference for Color, Num- ber, Form and Internal Speech ; and they offer convenient chance series of 1:2, 1:4, 1:10, and 1:40 (if the face-cards, or court-cards, are dis- carded).
In order to test the hypothesis of a conunon "Suggestion Mentale" ; to analyze out the conditions of experimentation responsible for success, if found ; to make a psychological study of the mental processes of the reagent in the thought-transference situation; to get material with which to make a comparison between inductive and theoretical probabil- ity; and to establish a "norm" for a definite test for thought-transfer- ence or clairvoyance: this investigation, continuing through four years "^ and involving over no sets of 100 experiments each, was made.
* Reagents.
Our research was conducted with the assistance of 105 reagents (percipients) and 97 experimenters (agents), (the writer acting as ex- perimenter in 18 sets of experiments). All assisting experimenters and reagents were students in the general lecture course in psychology or were doing laboratory work in the department, or both ; were in their first (29), second (72), third (50), fourth (42), or fifth (7) year of university work; were pursuing their major subjects of study in twenty
"» Preyer (Die Erklarung des Gcdankcnlcsens, Leipzig, 1886, pp. 48 ff) chal- lenges Richef 8 results upon which he announced "Suggestion mentale" as a slight but normal human phenomenon, claiming that the slight excess over probability is within the limits of chance, and that Richet also discarded unfavorable series.
"• Cf:, Reference to such preference by the American Committee on Thought- Transference, Proceedings Am.S.P.R., Series i, 1:9, 45, 106, iii.
*»^ 1912-1916.
Digitized by
GUESSING OP PLAYING-CASDS 51
different departments of the university; and had registered from twenty-one different states and from various sections of California. They were thus a fairly representative group of normal people. Their attitude toward the telepathic hypothesis determined their selection from the class for this research. It was generally that of positive belief in it. Of the reagents, most of them expressed confidence, based upon their own experience, either in "The feeling of being stared at" (40), or in the power to "Will another to turn around" (i), or in both (45), or in thought-transference (11); the few undecided or agnostic ones (4) were open-minded and were willing to give the hypothesis a fair trial. Of the experimenters, most of them likewise expressed their faith, based upon their own experience, in the powers of "The feeling of being stared at" (10), or of "Willing" (7), or of both (59), or in thought- transference (5) ; again the few undecided or agnostic ones (10) were open-minded and were willing to do their best to give the hypothesis a fair trial. Apart from their own experience, almost all of both groups, including some of the uncertain and agnostic ones, have "convincing knowledge" of thought-transference experienced in their families or among their relatives, friends, or acquaintances. As will be shown later, the experience of the four or five days' work on a set of 100 experi- ments more often than not left the faith whole and the reagent expect- ant of statistical proof.*"
Method.
In order to determine whether transferred knowledge, if any should be found, involved the use of visual imagery, as appeared to be the case in most of the English experiments, or of kinaesthetic imagery (incip- ient pronouncing) which Hansen & Lehmann ^*^ found to be effective in the guessing of ntunbers, the card drawn by the experimenter was held in his mind in three different forms of content, the form being de- termined for each experiment by the casting of an odd number of a die : I, visual impression; 5, kinaesthetic image (stripped of auditory ac- companiment) ; 5, combined visual impression, kinaesthetic image, and auditory image. In the first form the upper left-hand comer of the card was critically inspected, visually defining as vividly as possible the small Arabic numeral in the comer and the color and form of the pip which
*«• Vide, infra, pp. 109 ff.
^ Philosophische Studien, 189S ii:47i-550.
Digitized by
52 THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
determined the suit, and since the rest of the card was not screened, the general form, number, and distribution of the pips on the card were rep- resented in non- focal consciousness; in the second form, the comer of the card was quickly glanced at, then concealed and named in inner speech (as "Five of Diamonds") with consciousness vividly focused upon the "feel" of the imaged movement of the vocal organs, abstract- ing entirely from the image of the sound; in the third form, the first and second were combined and an auditory image of the experimenter's own voice in unison with the voices of others shouting the name of the card; the last form involved some shifting of the attention, but it was perhaps the most vivid of the three. Besides the cognitive mental con- tent, the experimenter held in consciousness a determined attitude of will that the content should reach the reagent.
In order to have an experimental probability with which to com- pare results, or to determine definitely that phenomena of thought- transference, if found, are distinct from phenomena of lucidity, if found, blank or control experiments were provided for in every series, and were conditioned by an even number of spots on the die. This provision enables us to avoid certain defects in the entirely separate series of con- trol experiments.
To determine, within our limits, the influence of distance between reagent and experimenter, the experimenter, in the first 3000 experi- ments, moved his chair every 20 experiments, over the following posi- tions: I, 2, 3, 4.6, 6, and 10 meters. And to determine the influence of the length of the "interval of impression," the time was varied, in an- other 2500 experiments, over 20, 40, and 60 seconds, giving the reagent the privilege, after the first three or five series of his fet, of choosing his optimal time
Guesses were recorded by the reagent upon the color, number, and suit, of the card separately. Besides impelling him to inspect his im- pressions more critically, this device permitted the calculation which would determine whether color or form is more transferable. The rec- ord was kept covered by a sheet upon which introspections for each ex- periment were noted. The latter were tabulated according to the fol- lowing headings: (i) Was the mind in a good receptive mood? (2) With respect to the imagery in which your impression came, what was its (a) Kind (visual, auditory, kinaesthetic) ? (b) Vividness (Grade A to D, A for very vivid) ? (r) Temporal course (did it come at the beginning, middle, or end, of the interval; did it come quickly — flash
Digitized by
GUESSING OF PLAYING-CABDS 53
out — or did it develop slowly ; was it intermittent, persistent, or fleeting) ? (d) Spatial attribute (where do you image the card, at your back, front, right, left, and how many meters away; or is it in your head)? (3) What is the certainty of your judgment? ^'^ (o) Grade A 'to D, A for a very good chance of its being right; D for only a little better chance than a pure guess would have, (ft) If you graded your guess above C, what was there in your experience upon which you rely for your confi- dence? The following introspections taken from the record will illus- trate :
|
Reagent Experiment |
/ |
2 |
3 ^ |
|||
|
a |
"T*^^ |
d |
a |
^^ ^ ^b |
||
|
4 15 |
Yes |
V |
B bp |
fi |
B |
Gune Immediately and was very persistent. |
|
IS 59 |
Yes |
V |
B bq |
f^ |
B |
Saw it distinctly. |
For Reagent 4, in his 15th experiment, the mind was in a good re- ceptive condition during the interval of impression; the impression of a card came in visual imagery (V), vividly (B), at the beginning (b) of the interval, and was persistent (p) ; the card was imaged in front (f), about I meter distant; the guess was made with a high degree of certainty (grade B) that it must be right because the impression "Came immediately and was very persistent." The introspections of Reagent /J, for his 59th experiment, are similarly interpreted ; except that his im- pression came quickly (q), and was not noted as persistent; the card was imaged in front about 3^ a meter distant ; and the guess was given a high grade of certainty because the reagent "Saw it distinctly." (Fac- similes of the ruled forms for recording introspections and for recording guesses may be seen in Appendix B.)
The experimenter with a watch before him, ( i ) shuffles the deck of 40 playing cards (the face cards being discarded ),^'^ cuts the pack, and holds cards concealed; (2) shakes the dice-box, to determine a con- trol or regular experiment, and, if the latter, the form of content the card is to have in his mind; (3) if a regular experiment, he turns over the pack, exposing to his view the under card, taps once to sig- nal the reagent that the experimental period begins, holds mental con-
1*0 For reference to the desirability of noting the relation of confidence of judgment to success, vide, Proceedings Am, S. P. R., Series i, i : lop, 262.
7»iC/., Instructions by the American Committee on Thought-Transference, Proceedings Am.S.P.R., Series i, 1:46, 262.
Digitized by
54 THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
tent of card and wills the content to be projected into the mind of the reagent, and, after 15 to 20 or more seconds *" taps twice to signal the close of the interval. After he notes that the reagent has recorded his guess, and has turned to his introspections, he records the color, num- ber, and suit of the card and the number of the die-spot which condi- tioned the form of the experiment (as, RsH i, for Red, Five of Hearts, Die-spot I — i. e., held in Visual Impression). The control experiments ran oflf in precisely the same form as the regular, except that the card remained unknown until the reagent had recorded his guess.
Good experimental conditions*" were maintained: quiet, no con- versation, regularity of procedure, etc. The reagent sat with his back toward the experimenter, and in the experimental interval he closed his eyes, "thought of nothing," and assumed a calm, receptive, quietly ex- pectant state of mind ; he was cognizant of the method employed by the experimenter and held himself ready to receive impressions in any sense mode ; he was given all the time he needed to note down his introspec- tions, which in tfie early series of the set ran the experiments at the rate of one in 5-10 minutes, but later permitted a higher rate, one a minute as a maximum. Experiments were not made after fatigue point had been reached; a set of 10 series of 10 experiments each, 100 experi- ments, taking the reagent three to five days (one week apart, and at the same hour of the day) to complete.
The records were not compared by the reagent or the experimenter before the set was complete**^ and but seldom after: the procedure was '"without knowledge," and precautions were taken to avoid the rise of any rumor (such as ''Our results show no telepathy") which might influence those still engaged in the experiments.
Results.
Table XIII (on the verso page) gives (i) the number of the re- agent, (2) the number of correct guesses upon (a) the whole card, (b)
i»« Vide, supra, p, 52,
iss For what are considered conditions essential to success, vide, Schmoll and Mabire: Experiments in thought-transference (tr. from the French), Proceedings S.P.R,, 1888, 5:205; also, Report of the American G>mmittee on Thought-Trans- ference, June 15, 1886, Proceedings Am. S.P,R., Series i, 1:110-111; idem. May 1887, p. 261.
*»* Cf,, Gumey, Myers, and Podmore: Phantasms of the Living, vol. I, p. 33, foot-note.
Digitized by
GUESSING OF PLAYING-CASDS 55
the color, (c) the number of spots, (d) the suit, (3) the number of guesses wholly wrong, and (4) the total number of experiments. The "Gird Not Imaged" side of the table gives the data of the control ex- periments, i. e., of guesses upon cards unknown to the experimenter.
Table XIV (on the recto page) gives the deviations from approx- imate probability, and was derived from the data of Table XIII after the latter was reduced to sets of 50 experiments.*** In Table XIII, for ex- ample. Reagent i made 26 R guesses on color in 55 control experiments, and 22 in 45 regular experiments ; reduction of the control and regular experiments to 50 each makes the value of the R guesses 24 in each case (disregarding decimals), which is a deviation of ~i from the "prob- able number" 25. The deviations of guesses on Card, and Suit, and of guesses Wholly Wrong, are made from the integral niunber nearest the value of the "probable number," which in these cases is fractional ; i. e., on the Card it is made from i instead of from 1.25; on the Suit from 12 if minus, or 13 if plus, instead of from 12.5 ; etc."* This is the only table in which the results of the different reagents may be compared directly.
Table XV gives the totels per 1000; Table XVI gives (i) the per cent of R cases (a) per 1000 experiments, and (6) the per cent for the total, as well as (2) the per cent expected from theoretical probability; and Table XVII gives the deviations from the probable per cent.
iw This reduced table (Table Xllla) may be seen in Appendix A.
^••The reader will readily recognize the fact that these deviations are only approximate and, consequently, cannot be compared for slight differences. In the redaction to sets of 50, the value found is an integer which may vary in value from -0.5 to 404. Deviation is calculated from the integer. In no case, however, can the neglected values exceed a deviation of ±0.5 in the cases of Colors or Numbers, or ±1. in the cases of Suits or Wrong guesses, or ±0.75 in the case of Cards. The justification for neglecting these fractional deviations lies in their small value as compared with the deviations themselves, and in the increased clearness of the table consequent upon the dispensing with decimals. The smaller differences, more- over, are not significant in sets of 50 experiments; they reach significance only in the averages, or in per cents calculated from the averages, of a number of sets, in which statistical consideration we turn to the original unreduced data.
Digitized by
56
THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
TABLE XIII. NUMBER OF RIGHT CASES IN THE GUESSING OF PLAY-
ING-CARDS.
(Sets of 100 Experiments.) A, Normal Persons (Students).
|
c:ai |
'd Not Imaged |
Card Imaged |
||||||||||
|
Reagent |
C:ard G)lor No. |
Suit |
W |
Total |
Card Color No. |
Suit |
W ' |
rotal |
||||
|
/. |
4 |
26 |
6 |
16 |
28 |
55 |
3 |
22 |
7 |
II |
21 |
45 |
|
2, |
3 |
26 |
S |
14 |
19 |
46 |
0 |
20 |
6 |
7 |
30 |
54 |
|
2- |
2 |
36 |
5 |
19 |
10 |
47 |
2 |
28 |
5 |
12 |
24 |
53 |
|
4^ |
2 |
21 |
5 |
13 |
22 |
46 |
2 |
28 |
8 |
13 |
21 |
54 |
|
5. |
2 |
25 |
6 |
10 |
25 |
54 |
I |
17 |
3 |
10 |
27 |
46 |
|
6. |
2 |
31 |
6 |
13 |
17 |
52 |
0 |
26 |
4 |
10 |
20 |
48 |
|
7. |
I |
18 |
3 |
12 |
29 |
48 |
2 |
29 |
3 |
13 |
23 |
52 |
|
8, |
0 |
28 |
5 |
14 |
24 |
55 |
0 |
18 |
2 |
12 |
25 |
45 |
|
p. |
0 |
23 |
3 |
10 |
18 |
44 |
I |
24 |
4 |
14 |
29 |
56 |
|
10, |
2 |
31 |
4 |
16 |
23 |
56 |
I |
23 |
4 |
14 |
18 |
44 |
|
Totals |
i8 |
265 |
48 |
137 |
215 |
S03 |
12 |
235 |
46 |
116 |
238 |
497 |
|
1st 1000 |
||||||||||||
|
//. |
I |
25 |
8 |
14 |
20 |
51 |
2 |
25 |
8 |
12 |
18 |
49 |
|
12, |
I |
24 |
7 |
12 |
17 |
47 |
I |
31 |
8 |
16 |
20 |
53 |
|
13* |
2 |
21 |
7 |
8 |
29 |
53 |
I |
17 |
4 |
7 |
28 |
47 |
|
14* |
0 |
29 |
3 |
12 |
24 |
55 |
I |
19 |
5 |
8 |
22 |
45 |
|
15- |
I |
24 |
4 |
10 |
17 |
43 |
0 |
29 |
5 |
16 |
26 |
57 |
|
j6. |
I |
23 |
4 |
14 |
25 |
50 |
I |
29 |
6 |
15 |
19 |
50 |
|
17* |
3 |
26 |
6 |
II |
24 |
52 |
I |
24 |
4 |
18 |
21 |
48 |
|
i8. |
I |
20 |
6 |
8 |
20 |
43 |
I |
22 |
2 |
12 |
34 |
57 |
|
19* |
2 |
21 |
8 |
14 |
16 |
42 |
2 |
28 |
7 |
13 |
26 |
58 |
|
20, |
0 |
27 |
7 |
12 |
24 |
56 |
I |
25 |
4 |
13 |
18 |
44 |
|
Totab |
12 |
240 |
60 |
"5 |
216 |
492 |
II |
249 |
53 |
130 |
232 |
508 |
|
2d 1000 |
||||||||||||
|
21. |
I |
18 |
2 |
6 |
28 |
46 |
2 |
22 |
6 |
13 |
28 |
54 |
|
22, |
0 |
26 |
I |
II |
IS |
41 |
I |
23 |
4 |
8 |
^Z |
59 |
|
22* |
0 |
23 |
I |
IS |
20 |
44 |
2 |
24 |
6 |
12 |
28 |
56 |
|
24- |
0 |
27 |
7 |
12 |
18 |
47 |
I |
28 |
6 |
16 |
22 |
53 |
|
25* |
4 |
31 |
9 |
20 |
18 |
52 |
4 |
28 |
II |
15 |
17 |
48 |
|
26. |
0 |
28 |
I |
19 |
22 |
51 |
4 |
25 |
9 |
13 |
21 |
49 |
|
27- |
0 |
IS |
I |
9 |
27 |
42 |
2 |
31 |
8 |
18 |
21 |
58 |
|
28, |
2 |
22 |
3 |
14 |
25 |
48 |
I |
26 |
5 |
15 |
23 |
52 |
|
29* |
0 |
21 |
2 |
13 |
22 |
44 |
0 |
31 |
5 |
8 |
22 |
56 |
|
so. |
0 |
18 |
I |
9 |
25 |
44 |
3 |
28 |
II |
17 |
23 |
56 |
|
Totals |
7 |
229 |
28 |
128 |
220 |
459 |
20 |
266 |
71 |
135 |
238 |
541 |
|
3d lOQO |
Digitized by
GUESSING OF PLAYING-CARDS
57
TABLE XIV. RIGHT CASES IN THE GUESSING OF PLAYING-CARDS. DEVIATIONS FROM APPROXIMATE PROBABILITY.
A, Normal Persons (Students).
|
Card Not Imaged |
Card Imaged |
||||||||||
|
Card |
Color |
No. |
Suit |
W |
Card |
Color |
No. |
Suit |
w |
||
|
Probable |
No. Reagent |
M5 |
n |
5 |
ia.5 |
22.5 |
"5 |
as |
5 |
12.5 |
22.5 |
|
1st 1000 |
/. |
+3 |
-I |
0 |
+2 |
+2 |
+2 |
-I |
+3 |
0 |
0 |
|
2. |
+2 |
+3 |
0 |
+2 |
-I |
-I |
-6 |
+1 |
-6 |
+5 |
|
|
J. |
+1 |
+13 |
0 |
+7 |
-II |
+1 |
+1 |
0 |
-I |
0 |
|
|
^. |
+1 |
-2 |
0 |
+1 |
+1 |
+1 |
+1 |
+2 |
0 |
-3 |
|
|
5. |
+1 |
-2 |
+1 |
-3 |
0 |
0 |
-7 |
-2 |
-I |
46 |
|
|
6. |
+1 |
+5 |
+1 |
0 |
-6 |
-I |
+2 |
-I |
-a |
-I |
|
|
7. |
0 |
-6 |
-2 |
0 |
+7 |
+1 |
+3 |
-2 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
«. |
-I |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-I |
-5 |
-3 |
0 |
+5 |
|
|
p. |
-I |
+1 |
-2 |
-I |
-2 |
0 |
-4 |
-I |
0 |
+3 |
|
|
10, |
+1 |
+3 |
-I |
+1 |
-I |
0 |
+1 |
0 |
+3 |
-2 |
|
|
2d 1000 |
II. |
0 |
0 |
+3 |
+1 |
-2 |
+1 |
+1 |
+3 |
0 |
-4 |
|
12, |
0 |
+1 |
+2 |
0 |
-4 |
0 |
+4 |
+3 |
+2 |
-3 |
|
|
13- |
+1 |
-5 |
+2 |
-4 |
+4 |
0 |
-7 |
-I |
-5 |
+7 |
|
|
H- |
-I |
+1 |
-2 |
-I |
0 |
0 |
-4 |
+1 |
-3 |
4-1 |
|
|
15- |
0 |
+3 |
0 |
0 |
-2 |
-I |
0 |
-I |
+1 |
0 |
|
|
i6. |
0 |
-2 |
-I |
+1 |
+2 |
0 |
+4 |
+1 |
+2 |
-3 |
|
|
17' |
+2 |
0 |
+1 |
-I |
0 |
0 |
0 |
-I |
46 |
0 |
|
|
i8. |
0 |
-2 |
+2 |
-3 |
0 |
0 |
-6 |
-3 |
-I |
+7 |
|
|
19- |
+1 |
0 |
+5 |
+4 |
-3 |
+1 |
-I |
+1 |
-I |
0 |
|
|
20. |
-I |
-I |
+1 |
-I |
-I |
0 |
+3 |
0 |
+2 |
-2 |
3d 1000
|
21. |
0 |
-5 |
-3 |
-5 |
+7 |
4-1 |
-5 |
4-1 |
0 |
+3 |
|
22, |
-I |
+7 |
-4 |
0 |
-4 |
0 |
-6 |
-2 |
-5 |
+5 |
|
^3' |
-I |
4-1 |
-4 |
+4 |
0 |
4-1 |
-4 |
0 |
-I |
42 |
|
^4- |
-I |
+4 |
+2 |
0 |
-3 |
0 |
4-1 |
4-1 |
+2 |
-I |
|
25- |
+3 |
+5 |
+4 |
46 |
-5 |
+3 |
+4 |
46 |
+3 |
•4 |
|
26. |
-I |
42 |
-4 |
46 |
0 |
+3 |
4-1 |
+4 |
0 |
-I |
|
^' |
-I |
-7 |
-4 |
-I |
-K) |
4-1 |
■¥2 |
4^ |
4^ |
-4 |
|
28, |
4-1 |
-2 |
-2 |
42 |
+3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4-1 |
0 |
|
^. |
-I |
-I |
-3 |
4^ |
+2 |
-I |
+3 |
-I |
-5 |
-2 |
|
30. |
-I |
-5 |
-4 |
-2 |
+5 |
4^ |
0 |
+5 |
4^ |
-I |
Digitized by
58
THOUGHT-TRANSFER£NCE
Reagent
TABLE XIII— Continued.
Card Not Imaged Card Imaged
Card Color No. Suit W Total Card Color No. Suit W Total
|
31- |
0 |
14 |
3 |
7 |
22 |
38 |
2 |
36 |
7 |
20 |
23 |
62 |
|
3^' |
5 |
25 |
8 |
17 |
25 |
51 |
6 |
26 |
10 |
20 |
20 |
49 |
|
33' |
2 |
31 |
5 |
18 |
18 |
S2 |
2 |
31 |
5 |
19 |
17 |
48 |
|
34^ |
2 |
24 |
4 |
15 |
20 |
46 |
I |
34 |
7 |
15 |
16 |
54 |
|
35- |
I |
24 |
3 |
IS |
23 |
48 |
0 |
28 |
3 |
12 |
23 |
52 |
|
36, |
I |
28 |
7 |
14 |
15 |
46 |
2 |
31 |
5 |
18 |
23 |
54 |
|
37' |
2 |
39 |
6 |
23 |
IS |
S6 |
0 |
18 |
5 |
10 |
22 |
44 |
|
3S' |
0 |
21 |
4 |
10 |
29 |
53 |
2 |
24 |
4 |
9 |
22 |
47 |
|
39- |
0 |
19 |
2 |
ID |
27 |
48 |
I |
26 |
3 |
IS |
25 |
52 |
|
40. |
0 |
21 |
I |
10 |
23 |
44 |
4 |
30 |
7 |
18 |
25 |
S6 |
|
Totals |
13 |
246 |
43 |
139 |
217 |
482 |
20 |
284 |
56 |
156 |
216 |
S18 |
|
4th 1000 |
||||||||||||
|
^. |
I |
31 |
4 |
II |
18 |
52 |
3 |
24 |
9 |
10 |
20 |
48 |
|
^. |
I |
24 |
2 |
13 |
24 |
49 |
3 |
26 |
10 |
12 |
19 |
51 |
|
43' |
2 |
31 |
4 |
12 |
17 |
48 |
0 |
25 |
4 |
13 |
24 |
52 |
|
44- |
0 |
26 |
4 |
13 |
18 |
48 |
I |
25 |
7 |
13 |
22 |
52 |
|
45' |
I |
23 |
6 |
10 |
22 |
48 |
0 |
30 |
3 |
16 |
20 |
52 |
|
46' |
2 |
31 |
8 |
12 |
17 |
S3 |
2 |
20 |
4 |
12 |
26 |
47 |
|
47' |
0 |
28 |
I |
14 |
22 |
50 |
2 |
28 |
8 |
IS |
17 |
SO |
|
4B' |
I |
31 |
6 |
13 |
23 |
57 |
0 |
23 |
4 |
13 |
19 |
43 |
|
49- |
I |
23 |
7 |
10 |
16 |
43 |
5 |
29 |
12 |
19 |
25 |
57 |
|
SO- |
I |
24 |
3 |
9 |
23 |
48 |
I |
28 |
5 |
13 |
21 |
52 |
|
Totals |
ID |
272 |
45 |
117 |
200 |
496 |
17 |
258 |
66 |
136 |
213 |
504 |
|
Sth 1000 |
||||||||||||
|
51. |
3 |
15 |
5 |
10 |
21 |
37 |
2 |
28 |
8 |
16 |
31 |
63 |
|
5^. |
3 |
28 |
4 |
II |
IS |
43 |
2 |
30 |
8 |
20 |
24 |
57 |
|
53- |
I |
26 |
6 |
12 |
23 |
S3 |
I |
24 |
5 |
II |
19 |
47 |
|
54' |
2 |
23 |
7 |
15 |
23 |
SO |
I |
23 |
4 |
13 |
24 |
50 |
|
55- |
2 |
26 |
5 |
II |
27 |
S6 |
I |
17 |
2 |
9 |
26 |
44 |
|
56' |
0 |
29 |
8 |
10 |
23 |
56 |
2 |
28 |
4 |
16 |
14 |
44 |
|
57- |
2 |
18 |
5 |
6 |
25 |
46 |
3 |
23 |
7 |
IS |
27 |
54 |
|
58' |
I |
26 |
9 |
II |
17 |
48 |
I |
22 |
5 |
12 |
27 |
52 |
|
59- |
I |
31 |
4 |
18 |
II |
43 |
4 |
30 |
9 |
13 |
23 |
57 |
|
60. |
I |
30 |
5 |
14 |
22 |
56 |
2 |
23 |
6 |
13 |
19 |
44 |
|
Totals |
16 |
252 |
58 |
118 |
207 |
488 |
19 |
248 |
58 |
138 |
234 |
512 |
|
6th 1000 |
Digitized by
GUESSING OF PLAYING-CASDS 59
TABLE XIV— Continued.
|
CsLTd Not Imaged |
Card Imaged |
||||||||||
|
Card |
Color |
No. |
Suit |
W |
Card |
Color |
No. |
Suit |
W |
||
|
Probable |
No. |
x^5 |
as |
5 |
xa.5 |
aa.5 |
1.35 |
as |
S |
xa.S |
aa-S |
|
^ |
Reagent |
||||||||||
|
4th 1000 |
31- |
-I |
-7 |
-I |
-3 |
^ |
+1 |
+4 |
+1 |
-^3 |
-3 |
|
^. |
+4 |
0 |
+3 |
+4 |
+2 |
+5 |
+2 |
+5 |
+7 |
-2 |
|
|
33- |
+1 |
+5 |
0 |
+4 |
-5 |
+1 |
+7 |
o |
+7 |
-^ |
|
|
34^ |
+1 |
+1 |
-I |
+3 |
0 |
0 |
^ |
+1 |
+1 |
-7 |
|
|
35- |
0 |
o |
-^ |
+3 |
+1 |
-I |
-hi |
-2 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
36. |
0 |
+5 |
+3 |
+3 |
-6 |
+1 |
+4 |
0 |
+4 |
-I |
|
|
37. |
+1 |
+10 |
0 |
4« |
-9 |
-I |
-s |
+1 |
-I |
42 |
|
|
38. |
-I |
-5 |
-I |
-3 |
+4 |
+1 |
+1 |
-I |
-2 |
0 |
|
|
39' |
-I |
-5 |
-3 |
-a |
+5 |
0 |
0 |
-2 |
+1 |
4-1 |
|
|
40. |
-I |
-I |
-4 |
-I |
+3 |
+3 |
•hi |
+1 |
t3 |
O |
|
|
5th 1000 |
41- |
0 |
+5 |
-I |
-I |
-5 |
•hi |
0 |
+4 |
-a |
-I |
|
4^. |
0 |
-I |
-3 |
0 |
+1 |
+3 |
0 |
+5 |
o |
-3 |
|
|
43. |
+1 |
+7 |
-I |
0 |
-4 |
-I |
-I |
-I |
0 |
0 |
|
|
44- |
-I |
+2 |
-I |
+1 |
-3 |
0 |
-I |
+2 |
o |
-I |
|
|
45' |
0 |
-I |
+1 |
-3 |
0 |
-I |
H |
-^ |
42 |
-3 |
|
|
46. |
+1 |
+4 |
+3 |
-I |
-6 |
+1 |
-4 |
-I |
0 |
+5 |
|
|
47. |
-I |
t3 |
-4 |
+1 |
o |
+1 |
^ |
+3 |
-^ |
-5 |
|
|
48. |
o |
-hi |
0 |
-I |
-a |
-I |
+3 |
o |
42 |
0 |
|
|
49- |
o |
+3 |
+3 |
0 |
-3 |
+3 |
0 |
4€ |
+4 |
o |
|
|
50. |
0 |
0 |
-a |
-3 |
+1 |
0 |
+2 |
o |
0 |
-a |
|
6th 1000 51- |
+3 |
-5 |
42 |
4-1 |
+5 |
4-1 |
-3 |
4-1 |
0 |
4^ |
|
5^. |
42 |
4« |
0 |
0 |
-5 |
4-1 |
4-1 |
4« |
+5 |
-I |
|
53- |
o |
0 |
4-1 |
-I |
0 |
0 |
4-1 |
O |
0 |
-« |
|
54. |
4-1 |
-2 |
42 |
42 |
o |
O |
-2 |
-I |
0 |
+1 |
|
55- |
4-1 |
-2 |
-I |
-2 |
4-1 |
0 |
-6 |
-3 |
-« |
+7 |
|
56. |
-I |
4-1 |
42 |
-3 |
-I |
4-1 |
+7 |
o |
+S |
-6 |
|
57- |
4-1 |
-5 |
0 |
-5 |
+4 |
4« |
-4 |
4-1 |
4-1 |
4« |
|
58. |
0 |
42 |
+4 |
-I |
-4 |
0 |
-4 |
O |
0 |
+3 |
|
59. |
0 |
4-1 1 |
0 |
4« |
-9 |
+3 |
4-1 |
+3 |
-I |
-2 |
|
60, |
0 |
42 |
-I |
0 |
-2 |
4-1 |
4-1 |
42 |
42 |
0 |
Digitized by
60
THOUGHT-TRANSFERENCE
TABLE XIII— Continued. Card Not Imaged Card Imaged
|
Reagent |
Card Color No. |
Suit |
W |
Total |
Card Color No. |
Suit |
W 1 |
rotal |
||||
|
6j, |
I |
23 |
5 |
13 |
18 |
45 |
0 |
24 |
0 |
13 |
31 |
55 |
|
62. |
I |
26 |
2 |
II |
17 |
43 |
0 |
33 |
5 |
10 |
22 |
57 |
|
63^ |
2 |
24 |
6 |
15 |
20 |
46 |
4 |
27 |
6 |
20 |
25 |
54 |
|
64^ |
6 |
30 |
9 |
17 |
18 |
49 |
3 |
27 |
7 |
14 |
24 |
51 |
|
65^ |
2 |
26 |
7 |
13 |
26 |
55 |
I |
22 |
3 |
10 |
21 |
4S |
|
66. |
3 |
27 |
9 |
II |
26 |
53 |
3 |
23 |
ID |
14 |
19 |
47 |
|
67. |
2 |
28 |
6 |
16 |
18 |
48 |
0 |
19 |
4 |
13 |
29 |
5^ |
|
68. |
2 |
23 |
7 |
9 |
19 |
46 |
2 |
29 |
5 |
16 |
24 |
54 |
|
69^ |
2 |
24 |
3 |
15 |
23 |
48 |
2 |
27 |
5 |
13 |
23 |
52 |
|
TO, |
2 |
27 |
8 |
13 |
23 |
53 |
2 |
17 |
5 |
10 |
27 |
47 |
|
Totals |
23 |
258 |
62 |
133 |
208 |
486 |
17 |
248 |
50 |
133 |
245 |
514 |
|
7th 1000 |
||||||||||||
|
71. |
3 |
30 |
3 |
16 |
30 |
60 |
I |
17 |
4 |
II |
22 |
4f> |
|
7-?. |
2 |
20 |
5 |
12 |
23 |
45 |
0 |
27 |
3 |
9 |
27 |
5S |
|
rs- |
I |
24 |
4 |
16 |
16 |
42 |
I |
23 |
7 |
10 |
30 |
58 |
|
74- |
2 |
21 |
4 |
II |
13 |
36 |
0 |
37 |
3 |
19 |
25 |
64 |
|
75- |
0 |
3; |
9 |
14 |
18 |
55 |
2 |
21 |
5 |
13 |
22 |
45 |
|
76. |
|